No IMO, quote, "Does the company have sufficient funds to see it through the first half of the forthcoming trial? If so the sp should increase and facilitate a dilution at 8 or 9 instead of 6. Effectively then an investment now or after dilution wont matter much except that other unknown variables could occur in the interim, probably in favor of not waiting to invest at this point."
No, the company DOES NOT have "sufficient funds to see it through the first half of any "forthcoming trial"??
The company has at most $18 million remaining on the Lincoln credit line (probably a bit less by now, I'd guess they made a draw down on it in the time for Dec 31 2014 10-K coverage to now, almost April 2015) so less than $18 mil by now as it's almost April and they had only $4 mil cash left in the 10-K "cash on hand" and the 10-K numbers only covered to end of Dec 31, 2014.
They presently consume close $2 million per month- as they exist today, just keeping the doors open, funding their present staff and activities (in fact they've hired a few people, so their expenses have gone up if anything)- and all of that is w/o spending anything on a large, FDA quality, Phase II type trial- which will need contract firms for enrolling patients at numerous sites, up front fees and costs of personnel to structure the trial properly, etc.
So with no trial going on- OCAT probably has about 6 or 7 months cash left before they'd be perilously close to lights-out, BK prep territory, as they'd become ill-liquid if bills were coming due and they couldn't get a Lincoln "draw" to hit their bank accounts in time, as the Lincoln $18 mil dwindled close to its last few dollars available, etc. They'd be cutting it extremely close to go that far w/o another cash raise or cash line in place (or drastic expense cutting such as layoffs, shutting down parts of operations, etc).
The INSTANT they were to actually start funding a large trial as they're talking about- that $18 million left on the Lincoln line- who knows how long it would fund them, but the number of months the $18 mil would last would drastically shorten IMO, as their expenses are going to skyrocket. They might burn through that $18 mil in 3 or 4 months easy- if hiring contract firms to conduct trial enrollment, begin dosing, treating and tracking patients, etc. I'd not be surprised if their cash use would nearly double to $3 mil or $4 mil a month- if a large trial begins to get funded and fully operational.
No company can cut it that close on their cash line IMO and they know it I think. I believe they can't and won't really start any trial to any serious degree until they've secured a substantial amount of the funding, up-front and banked it already. It'd be suicide otherwise IMO- rolling the dice on going BK.
It's no mistake IMO they opened a $100 MILLION dollar shelf offering and then said they were going to "try" for a $60 million cash raise off of that (botched and did not happen)- but that's indicative to me of the size and amount of the $coin they think they're gonna start burning through real quick if they ramp seriously into a large clinical trial. CASH and lots of it needed- and going to be burned up at a rapid pace- far more rapid than their cash use as of today.
My 2 cents worth
