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Re: flyersdh post# 22402

Wednesday, 03/18/2015 9:12:04 PM

Wednesday, March 18, 2015 9:12:04 PM

Post# of 24848

Math I ran:

Q1 2015 rev = $9.5M

Jan MAV - $3.4M

Jan PIMD - $135K

Feb MAV - $3.75M

Feb PIMD - $554K

Feb Diabetes - $103K

Total through Feb = $7.942M

Assume PIMD March numbers match Feb = $554K

Feb + March PIMD = $8.496M

Difference = $1.004M for March MAV. Insurance agreement ended March 13, 2015.

Am I looking at this wrong?


The only thing you left out is the magnitude of MAV's backlog from 12/31/14 that does not get recognized as revenues until JAN-2015, so this would be a portion of DEC-2014's approved orders that should get added in as well. BUT, if so, then this would mean that MAR's actual revenues may be smaller than the $1.004M you are estimating in order to arrive at the $9.5M that SCRC guided for.

In addition, the flipside of the backlog issue also holds true in that with insurance coverage stopping for CVS/Caremark on 3/13/15, it is likely that there may still be some backlog that carries over past 3/31/15, so this means that there are some MAR approved orders that will NOT show up as part of this $9.5M in Q1'15 revenues but will instead show up in Q2 as part of APR revenues. So this would mean that MAR's approved orders may be HIGHER than the $1.004M you are estimating.

Point being that we have two components of potential backlog that each pull in different directions, the net of which gets Q1'15 revenues to $9.5M. BUT, knowing the magnitude of the fulfilled backlog from 12/31/14 vs the new incoming backlog at 3/31/15 will give us a clearer picture of what MAR as a stand-alone month may be -- and we simply have no visibility to enough datapoints to decipher this at this time.

Bottom line is to remember that "revenues" and "approved orders" are NOT the same thing and that it is possible for MAR's approved orders to come in well above or below your $1.004M estimate while STILL resulting in total Q1'15 company-wide revenues of $9.5M.

Make sense?