I don't remember the date of that forecast but it was by 2020 or 2025 I think. Given the rate of technological progress and likely discovery of more uses and the potential for current use I would say it is basically impossible to predict the growth for something for something like that, even factoring in Bloom Box growth. A new element being brought to market at a reasonable cost, who ewally knows what will happen? The demand could easily be 500 mt by 2018-19 as the first mass produced scandium goods come to market and generate buzz. The military could swoop down and become exclusive buyers and generate lucrative government and defense contracts. Or the demand could be feeble and Sc is deemed as too expensive. Do your DD and decide.
Year one of mining (2017-2018 most likely, but impossible to say - the mining world is slow) SCY will produce 36 metric tonnes of Sc oxide powder. Now what that will sell for I will leave up to the reader and market. Maybe it will sell for a premium, or a discounted off-take agreement, I could see strong arguments for both sides. I believe people have paid up to $200,000 for very small amounts (1 lb) of the stuff.
I would guess in 2018 maybe there is 50 mt produced, a trickle from various small producers and the majority from SCY. 36 mt is maybe 30 M profit for them on the low end, ten times earnings is 300 M with no value assigned to the deposit. That is just a guess though and my opinion.
SCY is perfectly scalable and if there are profits they will expand and being first to market they can probably acquire market share, since there isn't really one until someone makes supply. Chicken before the egg, or something like that. If there is demand for 500 mt in 2020 SCY could probably scale up and supply most of it, but by that time it will depend what their competitors are up to and the state of the market.
