That's not the way I would interpret Q3 results.
Everyone was hoping for Q3 results to be better. My expectations were mid $20Ms for revenue and EBITDA break even. What I did not expect was a $2.4M litigation accrual and revenue under $20M.
On the January conference call I did not expect that a long term overestimater like Andy would convert to realism/cautious pessimism and lower the sales targets for 2015. (He didn't do it without letting EVERYBODY know why, and just exactly how unhappy he was with those pesky shareholders.)
One explanation for Andy's behaviour with regard to outrageously optimistic guidance over his entire tenure with PLUG is that he allows his optimism and an overwhelming desire to please people today to override any sense of the negative implications of disappointing them tomorrow. (I'm sure we all know someone with a similar behaviour or have all done this in the past.)
This leads me to believe that the actions that led to the Q3 results and the conference call epiphany have the hand of PM written all over them. Who else but your (second) new CEO could knock the Andy optimism train onto a different track?
I can almost hear the words 'If in doubt, leave it out' echoing around the Plug board room in reference to revenue, revenue projections, and profitability ahead of the Q3 results and January conference call. The Soroof lawsuit was in litigation since 2008 and suddenly there is a out of court settlement and resulting litigation accrual?
I think the Paul Middleton factor (effecting the results in a negative way for either his own benefit or simply because that's the reality on the ground) has largely been visited upon the Q3 results and guidance already.
It would not surprise me that the Q4 results pull in revenue which was in question in Q3 (and therefore intentionally left out) and yield at least a $70M 2014, that the guidance moves back up (perhaps only slightly) from the conference call projections, and that the EBIDTA numbers (for Q4) come within a hair's breadth of or a little above break even.
With all that being said, and even if it all comes to pass, what does it mean for the share price? The big question is how PLUG is viewed as a go forward investment.
Does the market believe that PLUG has turned the corner towards both credibility and profitability?
I think the decision of the institutional investors on that question will determine the response in the share price, and the adroit actions of putting Paul Middleton front and center in the presentation of the results and future guidance, and the announcement of the names of a few mystery customers would go a long way towards tipping the scales to a favourable outcome.
And, of course, GLTA PLUGGERS!
