Rerobot, in response to your obvious frustration ... see my answers / opinions below...
Okay, but it ought to be clear that this should not take years.
I'm involved in projects maybe a third of this size, and the timelines are much tighter. It would take six months for a very complicated deal with multiple participants, removing subjects, etc. Etc.
Where are you involved in such a project? Is it in a developing country? In the middle of a desert with little infrastructure? Is your project waiting to have roads / railways / ports built? Do you know what the logistics are to even set up a camp where there is essentially NOTHING? It's very easy for someone to say that it would take six months to get a project going ... maybe in Canada or the US where all the infrastructure is there and all the machinery is available and the banks are bending over backwards to lend the money, but think about where they are and what challenges they are facing.
The size and complexity of this deal doesn't account for the timelines we are experiencing. So the question is what is the cause of this timeline?
When ICL partnered with Allana, the BFS was done based on 1 MTY mine. ICL has since stated that they want to increase that to 1.5 or 2.0 MTY. So do a little homework and think about why the delays are happening. The lending banks, seeing as how ICL is looking to increase annual tonnage, are asking for proof that this is actually feasible. They wanted larger cavern tests and they wanted more aquifer stress tests to see if 2 MTY was doable. Do you not think that these things take time?
It looks like lenders don't have a huge appetite for expediting this deal, or management can't anticipate the lenders requirements. Probably both. It's really discomforting that at this stage, I am not even sure what they will be trying to finance. MOP? SOP? Both? It's easy to imagine a scenario where changes keep pushing timelines out.
Why do you say that the lenders don't have an appetite for the deal? I think that they do and that's exactly why they are asking for the additional tests. They see the potential in the Danakil but they want to do their due diligence ... which of course TAKES TIME. Do you really think the lenders are going to make Allana do all these additional test and then just say “no thanks, we will pass”? No. In fact, I can almost guarantee that the lenders have told Allana that if the water trests and cavern tests were successful, they would release the funds. The cavern tests are due to be completed in Q2/15 and I think you will see financing very soon after that. As for your uncertainty of what they are trying to finance ... I ask you, have you even read the latest corporate presentation? I doubt it. But in a nutshell, they are financing the MOP by Q2/15 to Q3/15 and THEN a FS in Q2/15 to Q1/16 for the SOP and financing in Q2/16 to Q2/17 for SOP. Read the March 20145 presentation and be PATIENT.
