Sunday, March 08, 2015 10:53:04 PM
If one were to study the Sirius satellite radio 10 year chart, one would find that in the period of late 2005 to early 2009, SIR# dropped from a high of about $7.50 per share to a low of just above .05 per share. This represented a drop of more than 99% from the peak. During that same period (of the precipitous share price drop), Sirius grew their subscriber base from about 3.3 million to about 19 million by early 2009 (included in these figures is the merged subscribers from XM). This share price destruction, at the same time as the strong growth in subscribers, amplifies the point that share price performance may not be closely correlated with particular internal positive developments (the company bleeding cash was the primary cause of the share price drop). The fact that a rescue package catalyst began a share price recovery which has continued to the tune of about 80x (from the bottom) also demonstrates that it is never too late for a downward trending share price to begin to recover, and then eventually produce extraordinary gains. Additionally, there is now no doubt that Sirius now dominates the radio broadcast and content space, even though the deep share price drop would have seemed to indicate a different probable outcome.
I can't help but feel that the conclusion you have drawn, based upon the rationale presented below, is weak at best.
As always, simply my opinion.
GRCU
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