Tuesday, May 16, 2006 11:08:17 PM
First and foremost, please read my Disclaimer Statement at the bottom of this post
I made a phone call to 1-866-GO-IPLEX after the market close to confirm the morning call I received from someone. I trust my source, but I still want to check it out myself. It’s a toll-free number and doesn’t cost me anything. I was glad I did. It was a pleasant to speak a real iPlex sales person. I was told that iPlex will be shipped on this Thursday through a pharmaceutical distributor. The distributor is located in Mid-Atlantic. Insmed has four major call centers that cover entire country. There are 20+/- sales/field person plus 4 executive patients account managers, or called flexpoint. It was designed as a single contact point. Doctor just makes one phone call to the center and Insmed sales people takes care of the rest. They will help patients to fill out the necessary paper work and file to insurance for reimbursement and arrange delivering schedule and other things. I asked the official launching date, but I didn’t get any answer. The Thursday May 18 is a shipping date not launch date per the sales rep.
Then here comes my speculations on launching date and many other things related to iPlex. Again, please read my Disclaimer Statement at the bottom of this post before the continuation.
Now. My speculation begins…
Speculation on iPlex Launching Date
The official launch could be on Thursday May 18, Friday May 19 or Monday May 22. The launch event is a few weeks ahead of external schedule (June 12th) but is a little late (several weeks) behind internal schedule. There were a few issues related to bottling and labeling with 3rd party manufacturing contractors. They delayed launch for more than a month! However, the Insmed management has anticipated this delay due to the delicated making process. They are work extremely hard and to ensure the launch is 100% successful. I am happy that they didn’t provide exact launch date because the bottling and labeling processes were not in the hand of Insmed mgt. Still, they don’t provide any PR or hint through their own IR firm. I believe they want to see iPlex in the patient’s hand and then call for launch. And I must emphasize one more time that the sales rep I talked to didn’t provide any launching date or clue.
http://events.cobioscience.com/index.cfm?action=event&eventid=90
Speculation on iPlex Patients Number
The first batch (5000 vials) has been booked/sold out already. From go-iplex.com, IPLEX™ (mecasermin rinfabate [rDNA origin] injection) is supplied as a 36 mg/0.6 mL preservative-free sterile solution in single dose glass vials. Each box contains 35 vials. IPLEX™ can be stored frozen up to two months at constant temperature (-20°C, -4°F). Taking 5000 and divide it by 35, we get 142 boxes of iPlex vials. The company send a patient one box only. So I assume there are about 100+ patients have prescribed iPlex now. Also, three more batches are bottling and labeling, therefore I guess there could be 200-300 patients for this Q and next. Off-label use is possible. But I doubt that Insmed has 300 patients during the launch. I hope Insmed will have 1000 patients by the end of this year.
Speculation on Distribution Partner
The distribution partner is responsible for packaging, labeling, and shipping. I guess this partner is one of top 3 healthcare provider/specialist with frozen-required product handling and substance-controlled packaging capability. We don’t need to know their names as long as they do the work.
Speculation on Marketing Partner
Pfizer if any.
Speculation on EU EMEA Submission
In 3Q 2006. Mr. Young confirmed the submission at R&R conference. They are putting data (from PSA meeting) together and may submit to EU in August. However, the company said in September, 2006.
Speculation on IPlex Pricing
Increlex is selling for $23,000 per patient per year. I think iPlex will be priced around 26,000 or higher due to the cost of materials and processing.
Speculation on Buyout
Buyout in 2012. The company will be sold for 20+/- in 2012 when they have FDA approval for MMD and Insulin resistance. .
Speculation on Patent Litigation
No results until Spring 2008. Insmed will win. I hope abharploonta will cover this subject.
Speculation on 2nd iPlex generation
Insmed’s ITP is working with DowPharam using its pfenex to make liquid form iPlex. The product will be available in early 2007. FDA submission will be happened in 3Q this year.
Speculation on Institution Holdings (IH)
According to recent SEC filings and NASDAQ website, IH has approx 20% of O/S. Insiders have about 3%. IH could be increased to 30-40% when the PPS hits 3.
Speculation on Convertible Debts (CD)
Based on the latest 10Q and 8-Ks, there is about $2M CD left or 1.2 M +/- shares that may be converted to the common, and I think all those leftovers might have been already converted in the past few weeks.
Speculation on Price-Per-Share (PPS)
Since we cannot control the share price, I leave this speculation to a market maker. Buy-and-hold strategy will be rewarded in 2010.
Speculation on the future of INSM
I firmly believe iPlex will control 70-85% of U.S. market shares (6,000 patients) by the end of 2007, and 60-80% EU shares in 2008. 7-yr orphan protection will make iPlex a wonder drug in the world. The iPlex products are in high demand. ITP works 24/7 to increase production. If you have a chance to go to Insmed HQ or ITP boulder, Co, you will see. $2-$3 Billion market cap by 2010.
All is well.
Disclaimer: The content of this post is my personal opinion only. The purpose of this post is to stimulate and entertain sophisticated market professionals with my researches, judgments, and opinions based on highly controversial and unproven hearsay to attempt to forecast the inherently unknowable future course of iPlex markets. Individual Insmed investor shall be responsible for diligently researching and judging for him/herself all the many factors that can significantly impact his INSM position. Nothing in this post must ever be construed as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell INSM security, an act that involves risks of substantial financial loss. Don’t trade INSM security, period!
Recent INSM News
- Insmed Reports Inducement Grants Under NASDAQ Listing Rule 5635(c)(4) • PR Newswire (US) • 10/04/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/16/2024 08:47:38 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/16/2024 08:46:32 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/13/2024 08:28:36 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/10/2024 11:49:37 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/10/2024 08:14:18 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/10/2024 08:06:01 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/06/2024 08:19:01 PM
- Insmed Reports Inducement Grants Under NASDAQ Listing Rule 5635(c)(4) • PR Newswire (US) • 09/06/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form SC 13G - Statement of Beneficial Ownership by Certain Investors • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/03/2024 09:22:55 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/03/2024 08:10:29 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/22/2024 07:57:22 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/14/2024 08:28:27 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/14/2024 08:26:12 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/12/2024 08:05:02 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/12/2024 08:01:15 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/09/2024 09:30:32 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/08/2024 11:00:26 AM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/08/2024 11:00:05 AM
- Insmed Reports Second-Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Provides Business Update • PR Newswire (US) • 08/08/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Insmed Reports Inducement Grants Under NASDAQ Listing Rule 5635(c)(4) • PR Newswire (US) • 08/02/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Insmed to Host Second-Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call on Thursday, August 8, 2024 • PR Newswire (US) • 07/29/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/10/2024 09:19:37 PM
- Insmed Reports Inducement Grants Under NASDAQ Listing Rule 5635(c)(4) • PR Newswire (US) • 07/05/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Additional Positive Data from Pivotal ASPEN Study of Brensocatib in Patients with Bronchiectasis to be Presented at the 7th World Bronchiectasis Conference • PR Newswire (US) • 07/03/2024 01:03:00 PM
Unitronix Corp. to Invest $3 Million in USA Unity Coin Project • UTRX • Oct 7, 2024 7:08 AM
North Bay Resources Announces Assays up to 5 oz/ton Gold, 1.5 oz/ton Platinum, 0.5 oz/ton Palladium, and 0.5 oz/ton Rhodium at Mt. Vernon Gold Mine, Sierra County, California • NBRI • Oct 4, 2024 9:15 AM
Basanite, Inc. Appoints Ali Manav as Interim Chief Executive Officer • BASA • Oct 3, 2024 9:15 AM
Integrated Ventures Announces Launch of MedWell Facilities, LLC and Lease Agreement with Giant Fitness Clubs • INTV • Oct 3, 2024 8:45 AM
Beyond the Horizon: Innovative Drug Combinations Offer New Hope for Alzheimer's and More • NVS • Oct 3, 2024 8:45 AM
SMX and FinGo Enter Into Collaboration Mandate to Develop a Joint 'Physical to Digital' Platform Service To Enhance Natural Rubber Industry's Ability to Report on Sustainable and Ethical Supply Chains • SMX • Oct 3, 2024 7:00 AM