Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

Wonder when the street will wake up and realize ABBV isn't lying when they say they have that 27%.

For better or worse, probably not until they see numbers that show that.

The weekly script numbers have been very low (though the Bloomberg numbers are not terrible - similar to Olysio's start and it did >$2B in '14). With the restrictions on the scripts, and even more importantly the fact that many of the ABBV deals will never show up in script numbers, I think that it will take 1Q earnings before the street does understand the level of scripts, and therefor sales.

If ABBV gives the number of people treated in the quarter (like it did in the last call) that may give a lot of comfort. OTOH, we really don't know how much of a discount ABBV has given to get those deals. It would be logical that ABBV's discount would be at least as great as GILD's 46% discount. And if you look back on GILD's '14 HCV's sales, it takes at least 2 quarters to get the full benefit of the 12 week treatment cycle.

ALl that said, it still seems that the street does undervalue the level of the market ABBV controls (and the OUS market opportunity). Of course the OUS market is undervalued for GILD too.