MM, the consensus of the people who buy and sell this stock is that the value is not possible to quantify at this time, it is all tied to one trial whose likelihood of success cannot be measured. It is valued for what it is, a highly speculative investment. Therefore, it is not valued very highly. A tortured
past, very minimal insider ownership and many other things gives investors no confidence.
The upside potential in the short-term is extremely limited. Once in a while, it spikes, caused by this thing or that(this case an article). Since it is never followed by anything really substantial, it gives back its gains. Since it has happened so many times before, the period that the spike lasts grows shorter and shorter as the years pass. Too many people have seen it before and bail as soon as they get a little cash in their pocket since they have no fear they are going to miss a massive breakout.
People realize better short-term opportunities exist than to keep their money here. I have seen this pattern repeat itself many times over sixteen years. I will make two predictions:
1) The stock will hit 1.30 before it hits 1.50.
2) The next news out of this company will be the earnings report
- more losses, flat revenue and no real specifics on how the
Phase III trial is going.
Debt is not always a bad thing with very low interest rates. When we last had debt, we had to pay a fine exceeding one million dollars so that did not work out so well.
I can think of one company that has a market cap double ours with no revenue and not even Phase II results since Phase II was folded into Phase III.
How they differ from us:
1) No botched trail.
2) Large insider ownership.
3) Press release all major collaborations.
I do not necessarily believe their drug is any more likely to succeed than ours but their public relations is much better and that goes a long way. The market hates silence since they assume nothing must be happening or you would let the owners of the company(us)know.
