Semico, Semiconductor Insights Back Intel on Flash
Semico, Semiconductor Insights Back Intel on Flash
June 16, 2003 10:06am
As the industry braces for an expected Q2 update from Intel Thursday, Semico Research Corp. and Semiconductor Insights back the company in the flash arena.
In a report issued today, the two researchers conclude that Intel's dominance in the NOR flash memory market is expected to continue, based upon advances in its multilevel cell (MLC) technology, close association with OEMs in a growing cell phone market, and Intel-owned IP in flash. Intel's StrataFlash continues to displace more conventional NOR flash chips, having established MLC as the architecture of choice, the firms said.
In particular, the study says that by paving a path to increase the number of bits supported in each multilevel cell, Intel's ability to meet technical and cost requirements should be strong well into the future and will potentially result in huge savings to both Intel and their customers. Intel has pushed its way to the top through a manufacturing scheme based on stable processes proven on its leading-edge MPU designs, the firms said.
"As these processes become less competitive in the microprocessor arena, they are converted for use in flash memories, essentially giving Intel double use of their assets while keeping Intel's flash production technology well ahead of that of their competition," Devashish Paul, a Semiconductor Insights analyst, said in the report.
Jim Handy, of Semico Research, suggested that Intel's leadership in the flash market should come as no surprise and that despite strong competition, Intel's flash memory program will continue to generate substantial revenues.
"Intel has been dominant in the flash market from the start, and in 2002 counted for over 27 percent of the revenues with over $2.12 billion in sales," he said. "NOR Flash accounted for 71 percent of total flash revenues in 2002; however, we expect this to shrink slightly by 2007 down to just over 63 percent. The good news is that we're talking about a market that will grow from just over $5 billion now to over $29 billion in 2007. That represents a huge opportunity for Intel and others."
But that doesn't mean Intel can kick back and relax. Despite its advances, Intel must continue to innovate to keep its lead according to the study. Competitors such as AMD and Fujitsu who are pushing multibit cell (MBC) structures are expected to develop very competitive products to Intel's StrataFlash.
In addition, the NOR Flash market may come under attack from NAND flash memory, the firms predicted. When packaged with SRAM and boot block flash, NAND may offer a very viable cost per bit advantage and reasonable performance.
At its spring analyst meeting, Intel said it was ready to do what it takes to regain its NOR flash lead, following its Q1 29 percent loss. AMD, which feed on its rival's marketshare loss, estimated further Q2 gains based on memory.
It seems that I was correct when I said that the 27% flash market share numbers for INTEL were for 2002. Also, my assessment that the losses in Q1 (29%) were quite significant has turned out to be realistic.
What I find interesting is this:
"NOR Flash accounted for 71 percent of total flash revenues in 2002; however, we expect this to shrink slightly by 2007 down to just over 63 percent.
I hope that the rumours about Samsung entering the NOR space on a large scale are not correct, but I wouldn´t be surprised if they are.
AI
