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Sunday, May 14, 2006 3:34:46 PM
hey, for the record here are some reason why the drop last week:
1. cut revenue forcast
2. cfo leaving
3. low institutional sponsership (willing to support investment)
4. uncertainety towards value of intellectual property (lr2 royalties)
5. downside momentum (drop and gap causes extra selling)
6. general market downturn
*2+6 are very temporary imo (6 even with fed raising rate higher, housing and commodity bubble will bust, stocks without debt will go up, imo fed funds will go to 10% in '07)
*4+5 will vanish soon as well (4 either wednesday, when new lr2 license comes or at the point of first royalty)
*1+3 are something management really has to put some serious effort on.
-get back the missing $15 million in service revenue from additional contracts either from Sony or somebody else asap and in '07 plz. cover the base with service revenue ALWAYS, while working on growth in product and license area, but cover the base ALWAYS. breakeven quarter over quarter is relief
-warm up some investors with big pockets to the business goal. at garp, buy those ppl some coffee, beer, whine or other goods of mild bribery. just be nice, open and get them to put up some dollars. don't lie, it aint pay in the long run. etc.
long run x is a great technique. of course nothing is eaten as hot as cooked, but downfalls and panic create opportunity.
i wonder if last weeks selloff wasn't a total wrong reaction.
now i go back watching canada-czeck ice hockes wm...
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