Sunday, February 22, 2015 8:27:10 AM
Let's assume that YOU (not me) believe that there is a 10% chance that the stock will sell for 30 cents in a year, 10% chance for 15 cents, 10% chance for 5 cents, 10% chance for 2 cents,25% chance for one cent, and 35% it will go bust. So let's do the math together. (300 + 150 + 50 + 20 + 25 + 0)100 = an expected price in a year of $.0545, or discounted back to now from one year-out of perhaps five cents versus two cents currently. If these were your weighted probabilities, you'd think of the stock as a buy at current levels IF your personal risk profile is comfortable with about a one-third chance of being wiped out.
PLEASE, everybody, this is just an example of the weighted probability method of decision-making; you get to supply your own "probabilistic" numbers, your own discount rate from one year back to now, and your own risk taking/aversion profile.
I've answered your question as best I can within the limitations of my talent and my fervent desire to be respectful to both bulls, bears, and the company itself. Still, please remember that I personally would defer to Sgreg as an experienced investor in this particular market.
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