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Re: winningman post# 3395

Sunday, 02/22/2015 8:27:10 AM

Sunday, February 22, 2015 8:27:10 AM

Post# of 8579
You're very kind, Sir. I'm actually a CPA. My high school was Boston Latin School, and everyone who attends becomes either a literate graduate or a dropout. Regarding my current opinion on the stock, please let me defer to Sgreg whose background in investing/speculating is clearly superior to mine. I will, however, now provide a conceptual model for your own valuation of the stock at current levels.

Let's assume that YOU (not me) believe that there is a 10% chance that the stock will sell for 30 cents in a year, 10% chance for 15 cents, 10% chance for 5 cents, 10% chance for 2 cents,25% chance for one cent, and 35% it will go bust. So let's do the math together. (300 + 150 + 50 + 20 + 25 + 0)100 = an expected price in a year of $.0545, or discounted back to now from one year-out of perhaps five cents versus two cents currently. If these were your weighted probabilities, you'd think of the stock as a buy at current levels IF your personal risk profile is comfortable with about a one-third chance of being wiped out.

PLEASE, everybody, this is just an example of the weighted probability method of decision-making; you get to supply your own "probabilistic" numbers, your own discount rate from one year back to now, and your own risk taking/aversion profile.

I've answered your question as best I can within the limitations of my talent and my fervent desire to be respectful to both bulls, bears, and the company itself. Still, please remember that I personally would defer to Sgreg as an experienced investor in this particular market.