ScripsAmerica Inc. (SCRCQ)

[coolerheadsprevail]

@Garcimore00,

In response to your question yesterday re: what the PR about signing up the 500th customer for the diabetes supply segment means to SCRC’s income…

First off, I think it was interesting that NO revenue numbers were PR’d – but instead we were simply told that 500 customers have been signed up. I am curious as to the reason why the revenue numbers FOR THOSE 500 customers were not announced as I would surmise that an initial order would have been placed for all new customers at the time they signed up? After all, BS Schneiderman had never missed an opportunity to PR numbers before, even if they weren’t huge.

In any event, your question is an impossible question to answer at this time. Similar to when Main Ave initially launched, and similar to how SCRC just announced PIMD monthly numbers for the first time, we will need at least 3 months of numbers in order to even BEGIN to make heads or tails out of this revenue stream. Why? Because month 2 will give us our first peek at the rate of growth on a month-over-month basis. And month 3 will be an important indicator as to whether the month-to-month growth we saw from month 1 to month 2 was a fluke or may be sustainable. And then months 4 and 5 will enable us to smooth out the rough edges in our forecasting model.

You will be surprised at how often growth rates for new product launches end up falling within a predictable bell curve pattern. It is why towards the end of Spring last year, based upon the monthly growth rates over the first 3-4 months of Main Ave (in particular, the CHANGES in the rates of growth each month), I projected that by early-Q4’14, Main Ave should hit $5M/month – and it ended up hitting this $5M in SEP, only one month earlier than the bell curve estimated it would.

BUT, specifically for this diabetes-related revenue stream, we can’t make any projections on what having 500 customers enrolled may translate to from a $$$-perspective until we know the following:

• Is it ONLY Type II diabetes that Main Ave is servicing? Or is Main Ave servicing ALL diabetic needs?
• Is Main Ave ONLY providing the SUPPLIES? Or is Main Ave also providing the various drugs as well? As a pharmacy, I would think they would supply the actual drugs as well, but I don’t think we can say for sure yet, especially since the name BS Schneiderman gave to this new business segment specifically included the words “equipment and supplies” and all the PR’s about it have always emphasized the equip/supplies aspect of it.

BUT, unless/until shown otherwise (hopefully the 10K/Q’s will provide more details in the disclosures about this new segment), I will presume that Main Ave is providing BOTH the equip/supplies AND the actual meds since it kinda makes sense for them to do so (after all, they ARE a pharmacy).

The cost for the meds depends on what exactly the doctor prescribes. If you look at the bottom of the report linked here…

http://effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov/index.cfm/search-for-guides-reviews-and-reports/?productid=721&pageaction=displayproduct

…you will see that the WHOLESALE price for a 1-month supply of the various types of meds vary from $9 to $505. This range is way too broad to try to make any projections at this time. And this is just the list for Type II diabetes. Plus, I do not believe this includes any of the “supplies” that a diabetic constantly needs to buy again and again.

And keep in mind, this is just the wholesale cost to pharmacies. Pharmacies will mark these prices up when they sell to customers, so the revenue numbers will be higher than what you see listed in the link.

AND, another factor that muddies up the water even more is that none of us have any clue what the insurance companies’ agreed upon rates are. All we know is that, as with any health insurance related coverage, the amount of revenues that a service provider (be it a doctor for an office visit or a pharmacist in selling Rx’s) makes on a transaction is LOWER when paid for by insurance compared to when the transaction is paid for at “rack rate” directly by an uninsured consumer.

Lastly, just as with PIMD, although topline revenues always look nice, we need to see for both PIMD and this new diabetic equip/supply segment what the BOTTOM line contribution is, as this is where the rubber meets the road from an investment-thesis perspective.

I know it is not the specific answer you are looking for, but I do not believe that the answer you are looking for exists at this time. We will all just have to wait and see. The future monthly PR’s combined with the upcoming 10K and 10Q should be very informative in this regard.

THAT BEING SAID, just for giggles, let’s speculate a bit. Let’s say that within the $9-$505 per month range, the avg WHOLESALE cost comes out to $250. And let’s presume the margin on the COGS is 50%, so this means that the avg “sale” is approx $500. I have no idea how much the supplies/equip cost, but in searching the web briefly, I think a reasonable guesstimate may be an avg of $50 more per month in sales for consumable items such as syringes, etc.

So that brings our completely speculative guesstimate to $550/mo per customer. At 500 customers signed up thus far, if they all refill their supplies and meds each month, this computes to approx $275k/mo. Not too shabby for a first month. Factoring in zero growth, it is already annualized to be approx $3.3M per year.

Conservatively, even if it doesn’t even double but simply tops out at $500k/mo, this represents $6M/year in additional topline revenues. That’s an additional 11% of accretive revenues on top of the $55k that was forecasted for Main Ave, which is a material increase if our guesstimate is anywhere in the ballpark.

As a slight tangent, if we look at PIMD (again, considering topline revenues ONLY w/o consideration of how profitable they actually are), they reported $137k last month. If PIMD were to also top out at $500k/mo, this would also represent another $6M in sales/year.

Together, the diabetes segment and the PIMD segment would then potentially contribute 22% in additional revenues on top of the $55M that was forecasted for Main Ave. That would be a very welcome sight to see should our guesstimates be anywhere near reality.

IMO, by the end of Q3’15, we should have a much clearer idea of where both the PIMD and diabetes supply segments will likely top-out w/respect to monthly run rates, and whether they will indeed be the bona fide contributors to SCRC’s top and bottom lines that we are hoping they will be – or whether they will simply become another WRx...


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Who specifically in joe z inner circle is a criminal?

@PIPEdream1,

Well, nothing has changed since the past 47 times you have asked this exact same question since the calendar turned to 2015. As, such, I will simply provide the same answer I have provided to you previously:

”So that makes over 2 dozen named and un-named individuals and entities who had been compensated to promote or otherwise bring publicity to SCRC. And nary a single solitary Section 17(b)-compliant disclosure from amongst the lot of them in spite of literally tens of thousands of public touts and other documented communications from these individuals soliciting new investors to buy and hold SCRC stock.

And there is plenty of documented evidence that exists that clearly connects the dots between these individuals and their online aliases. Many retail investors who are regulars here in pennyland know very well who JOSEPH ZAMPETTI, BLACK CAT CONSULTING (aka ADAM BROSIUS), SEAN FITZGIBBONS, BRUCE BERENBERG, ROBERT TIPPEN, JEFF SUPINSKY, MICHAEL HON, CHASE FRITZ, and the other named “consultants” are. And all this documentation (which, unfortunately cannot be posted here due to violations of the TOS, but rest assured the SEC and other regulatory/enforcement agencies have no such TOS restrictions and have been provided with everything) is separate from and in addition to the fact that in other venues in the public space, JOSEPH ZAMPETTI has actually self-disclosed his identity vis-a-vis his alias.”

Here is a link to the full post so folks can learn the entire history behind this con job:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=108844507

Or, you could just ask JOSEPH ZAMPETTI directly. I’m sure you can dig up his phone number quite easily.

Alternately, if you prefer, you can email this publicly-disclosed SCRC “consultant” at:

[e-mail]

If you have trouble reaching SCRC’s official resident racist homophobe, let me know and I will be absolutely tickled to have the opportunity to provide you with the contact info for some of the other “investor relations consultants” that were publicly disclosed by SCRC as having been compensated to promote the stock.

But I’m glad you are taking such a keen interest in the criminal activity that has and continues to plague SCRC shareholders. I would encourage everyone to contact SCRC’s “homophobic consultant of the year”, JOSEPH ZAMPETTI, thank him for stealing your money, and ask him why he elected to violate securities fraud laws and when he will begin properly disclosing his compensated status as a paid SCRC promoter in accordance with Section 17(b) of the Securities Act of 1933…