SCKT...I was going to post last night but the site kept saying it was down. Obviously the quarter did NOT turn out as I had thought. The seasonality was greater than I expected. My inventory tracking definitely showed part of it, but it was even greater than I thought (I put too much "hope" into the equation, especially after seeing many good things happen in 3Q that I didn't track). I should know better at this point.
Positives: Expenses are being kept in check, they are focusing on margins, the number of developers buying their SDK are up (1200+ vs 580 last year). The question is when does the growth come from all of these applications that are eventually created? A plus to their business model is that a tremendous amount of money flows to the bottom line as they rely on the partners to sell the scanners for the. The downside is that if the partners/industry are weak for a quarter than there isn't anything they can do about it.
I downplay my inventory tracking efforts, but perhaps it still is worthwhile. My numbers are showing Jan & Feb to be slightly better than last year, but still weak compared to 2Q and 3Q numbers of last year (they are on a run rate similar to 4th Q). Last year there was a big jump in April. It was like the switch was turned "on". It will be interesting to see when that happens this year. I'm not expecting any number much better for 1rst Q. Probably low $4M range at best now and 1 cent/share or less net income.
The story here is 2Q. That, imo, will show what this company can do and where it can go. I had always thought they would come in the high $5M range. Perhaps the low $5M range is more realistic?!? It will be interesting to see what my inventory numbers start to do going forward. I would like to see March or April be at levels I saw at the peak of last summer. Time will tell.
I'm not sure I said much here. This is a story for 2015, 2016, 2017. I get frustrated because I'm tired that it isn't moving at the speed/pace as I had always hoped and assumed it would. I think it's moving slower than they always thought too. It still doesn't mean it isn't dead. The business model is set up. They are holding to it. It just needs the developers to keep expanding.
