Tuesday, February 17, 2015 9:23:49 AM
A long but interesting article,everyone should read this. Might help,understand what is happening. "The Dirty Rotten Secrets of the Small Cap Markets" were previously unwritten rules, passed along verbally among stock promoters, company insiders, stock brokerage firm principals and many who are close to the outer fringes of this very exclusive club. Amazingly, many US and Canadian securities regulators have also been members of this very closed group. It is always interesting to discover how the head of a stock exchange's surveillance department, upon retirement from "public service," ends up as a senior vice president at the brokerage house with which he once squabbled or, vice versa, the favorite son of a brokerage firm later becomes the head of a securities commission. The financial markets are truly a revolving door, whereby this year's company insider was once a stockbroker; whereby a highly aggressive SEC attorney pursuing a scandalous media personality "suddenly" retires and becomes a senior executive at the Smith Barney brokerage firm. One thing is for certain, in the apparently uncertain world of "the business," YOU are on the outside looking in. The stock market is rigged against you and in ways you may never discover. The rules, laws, secrets and axioms I've listed in this essay should give you a much clearer understanding about the inner workings of the financial marketplace. No one has previously codified the "omerta," or code of silence which is rampant throughout the financial markets. One would become a pariah, an undesirable or an outcast, by writing these down and broadly disseminating them. You are NOT supposed to know these unwritten rules and God help the individual who passes them onto you.
The Dirty Rotten Secrets of the Small Cap Markets
1. LAW OF THE PEZ. This is dedicated to Murray Pezim, once the most powerful stock promoter in all of Canada. According to legend, Mr. Pezim, upon hearing that someone had made a killing on his stock play, immediately remarked, "Shareholder profits are short-term loans." Ultimately, if you continue your small-cap speculations, you will lose. Either the markets will turn or you will drop your guard, but eventually, you will lose. One should understand that the small cap stock markets run pretty much like a casino.... the longer you stay at the tables, the greater your chances of failure.
2. MOTTO OF THE STOCK PROMOTER. Sell when everyone is buying and buy when everyone else is selling. Actually, more often it is, sell when everyone else is buying, completely exit the play, and go find something else for them to buy later. It may even be: Start shorting your deal when you've sold out your entire position so you can score even more profit on the way down. There are corollaries to this motto, such as "never get married to a deal," or "never believe in your own deal," or "have a new deal ready to rock & roll as soon as the current one flops."
3. LAW OF THE UPTICKS. Stocks that are running higher are said to be upticking. Despite every effort I have made to emphasize that the best time to buy a stock is when it is low and boasts a sorry-looking flatline stock chart, speculators inevitably chase stocks to new highs. Stock promoters and insiders buy, or obtain a position, at the low and sell during the promotion or "discovery." Sadly, there will always be some type of promotion that will create upticks and speculators will chase that stock to a new level. Greed generates upticks. What stock promoters know that you don't is this law: A herd of speculators will only buy on the UPTICK.
4. AXIOM OF GREED. In an earlier essay, I isolated that greed originated from a "perceived" lack of speculative opportunities. This false perception causes a speculator to get greedy and chase a stock to a new level. If one has a hundred speculative opportunities on their plate, one is less eager to chase any specific stock. The lesser the number of opportunities one reviews, the greedier one becomes to chase a heavily promoted stock. A stock promoter will, thus, make "his stock" appear to look like the only game in town worth playing. Greed essentially emanates from deprivation.
5. RULE OF CONFUSION. The only time one rushes into a quick decision is when they are confused or disoriented or misled. The stock promoter's greatest weapon is CONFUSION: Catch a speculator off guard and sucker him into a stock. The more disoriented or confused the speculator, the greater his chances of being snared. Stock promotions include an overwhelming amount of data, reports, corporate reviews and so forth that are packaged in such a way as to confuse the speculator. If, at any time, you are overwhelmed with out-of-control emotions or data which you don't understand, it is better to stay out of the play.
6. SECRET OF EXCITEMENT. You've heard about the "forbidden fruit" or "unknown pleasures." As long as something remains a mystery, it can create an "excitement." Excitement is a sensation which one commonly associates with pleasure. Therefore, when an exciting proposition is offered, you may readily accept it in order to experience THAT sensation. When someone heaps excitement after excitement, upon you, in either the written or spoken word and/or with graphics (visuals, photographs, charts, drawings, etc.) and especially in a loud or emphatic manner, you become disoriented and confused. One overcomes this "sensation of the unknown or forbidden" through experience, often with a rude and unpleasant awakening. Stock promoters abuse your inexperience, and naiveté, to sell you stock. ALL mining speculations are exciting until the assays come back or a mine goes into development. Then reality sets in.
7. LAW OF WAITING. The longer you wait, the greater your chances for failure. This applies to both holding a stock which is declining and to a stock which is running. The odds are greater than 90% against you... that you will fail in a speculation, if you wait for it to recover or if you chase a stock which has already begun its run. Generally, a stock moves up in less than two weeks, often in two to five days. The waiting period, for a stock to allegedly recover, is the slow, dragged out retreat you later observe in the share price. As believers stop believing, the share price declines, often never recovering. Of course, if one wants to wait forever, then eventually the stock may recover. The longer one waits, during a runup, the smaller one's potential profits and the greater one's exposure to losses. (One important caveat: Occasionally, there are a few good deals--about 20 or 30 annually--when one SHOULD wait for the company to mature. Almost always, they come out of left field and, rarely, does anyone know in advance which company will become tomorrow's success story.)
8. AXIOM OF BELIEVING. The higher your expectations in a stock, the greater your chances of losing money in that speculation. All of the promotion is geared to make you a "believer." Most speculators are betting on a tip or a rumor. They are taking someone else's "word" for the outcome. Absolutely no one should invest or speculate in a stock without understanding the risks as well as the reward. Stock promoters create believers by providing ONLY the reward potential, without also including the risk factors. Believers eventually discover the risks, long after the stock has begun its decline.
9. LAW OF LOSERS. Oddly, those most attracted to speculative markets are failures in other aspects of their lives. They may be wealthy, but consider themselves, in some way, as having "failed." Medical doctors are prime targets of stock promoters, as they are not only affluent may have "settled for less" in their lives or feel they "are owed more" for the work they do. Whoever has failed, in some key aspect of their life, often tries to make up for it by gambling....often speculating in these markets. The loser is always trying to compensate for a failure in another part of his life and continues to heavily lose as a speculator. (Note: I stay in touch with certain losers and use them as a yardstick for my trading -- when they buy, I sell; when they sell, I buy. The loser has a knack for exiting his position, a day or a week before a major runup; or he/she simply always buys at the top of the runup. The downside to communicating with losers is that they are so darned indecisive and fretters; their worrying can and does rub off and creates a confusion for oneself.)
10. LAW OF THE SUCKER. PT Barnum was right: A sucker is born every minute. For every speculator that is wiped out, a fresh one is champing at the bit to start betting. Stock promoters prop up their plays by finding new blood to drain. The greener the speculator, the redder the carpet laid out for him. If there were no new suckers coming into the game, it would all be over.
11. SECRET OF THE AREA PLAY. Virtually all area plays fail. Rarely is there a long-term beneficiary to that area play, other than the initial company which made the discovery. The secret of the area play depends upon #1 (Law of the Pez). Those who profited from the share price runup of the company making the discovery are then offered a "second chance" or a third or a fourth with the rush of new companies into that area. Primarily, these companies are trying to finance other explorations elsewhere, but the fact that they staked some ground or bought some cheap claims doesn't stop them from parlaying that into an artificially inflated market capitalization. Inevitably, 99% of these companies fail to deliver, which is soon reflected in their vaporized share prices. Stock promoters, knowing well their chances of success were always very slim at best, long ago dumped their shares. The last one into the area play tends to have the worst chances of success.
12. THE GURU AXIOM. The least profitable time to follow any guru (stock promoter, newsletter writer, company insider) is immediately following his last successful play. The cliché that "he is only as good as his last play" is a promotional device effectively utilized to attract new money into a new play. If one looks at some of Canada's recent success stories in the mining business, the BEST time to follow the guru is immediately after his or her failure. Those who "had it," failed miserably and later bounced back seem to offer the highest probability of success. Often, there is a rush of money into the guru's "new play," which quickly exits when they discover that "this ain't the same one as the last one." It never is. Of course, every guru is keen on pointing out all of his previously successful plays and forgets about his failures. Self-fulfilling prophesies require substance in order to survive. Catch the "gurus" when they are down and out and heed their advice at that point in their careers. You may increase your chances of success. Hint: Sheer desperation drives them to repeat their success or to completely leave the business.
13. CANADA'S BEST KEPT SECRET. Many Canadian speculators don't pay for their stock. These Canadian speculators bet on stocks, against the equity in their account. We've heard about T-3, etc. That is bull. The truth is often, more like T-12 or T-20 (as in 12 or 20 days to settle instead of the required three days). Brokerage firms have been known to extend, to their best clients, the time they can hold "unpaid stock" for weeks. What is also not very well known is that brokerage firms can, and frequently do, short sell any stock which remains unpaid (they do so to protect themselves). Thus, during an exciting runup, one observes (or hears about) massive shortselling of a stock -- the stock wasn't paid for, so the brokerage firm shorts it. A brokerage firm's credit manager can quite excitedly extend your "credit terms" so that you have "more time to pay for your stock." Essentially, you end up betting against yourself, under these circumstances, because the brokerage firm is shorting your purchase. Later, you end up selling at a loss and the brokerage firm covers at a profit. The house nearly always wins. Your stockbroker gets his commission whether you lose or not.
14. THE CANADIAN LAW OF SHORT SELLING. While it is very expensive and deadly for the unsophisticated speculator to short a Canadian stock, brokerage firms can easily short stocks. They short against their "inventory." Generally, any rush of excitement into a stock is done under a short, speculative time frame (whereupon the speculator doesn't actually pay for his stock). Brokerage firms short sell against the unpaid speculation and drive the stock price down, down, down. As very large Canadian brokerage firms also accept many US stock orders, they short sell virtually every order which arrives. While the US investor pays for his/her stock, the Canadian firm can short sell against it, because rarely is delivery ever taken on that stock. As long as the certificates remain in the brokerage firm, it can be shorted.
15. AXIOM OF MOTION. What emotionally upsets any speculator is a LACK of motion. It is the absence of motion which prevents a speculator from patiently accumulating shares in a flatline stock (the share price remains constant at, or near, the floor of its stock chart). Speculators are eager to make their money work for them. Thus, if a stock doesn't move, they panic. Gradual downward motion rarely creates a panic. Imagine yourself in a well-lit room with a dimmer light. Stock promoters gradually turn down the lights until you finally discover you are sitting in the dark. Conversely, when they want to create the excitement, they abruptly turn on the lights. A stock forever trading at the same price creates an emotional upset, thus the gradual "up and down" motion manufactured by stock promoters and insiders and brokers. "Get it to move" is their motto if they want you to hold your position. UP offers hope and a recovery of your initial investment or (finally!) a profit after having waited so long. DOWN drives fear up your spine and you remain fixated in the stock, like a deer in a car's headlights.
16. SECRET OF PANIC. If you hold a position in a stock and are panicking, you should not be holding that stock position. You probably don't know enough about the company or have mentally spent that money for some other purpose than speculating in that stock. You are also very low on the food chain of information. A stock promoter's investor relations department primarily exists to minimize, reduce or eliminate the panic you feel in obtaining and holding your stock position. Panic is manufactured in approximately the same way excitement is created. The secret to overcoming panic is this: When it all looks like the end of the world, that may be the best time to buy; when it all looks like the world is made of cream cheese, run for the exit doors. Please realize that, generally, if someone has created a panic within you, it is for some ulterior motive -- they are aggressively trying to get you to do the opposite of what you should be doing.
17. LAW OF STOCK OPTIONS. Insiders like to hold free stock, just like anyone. Stock options exist so that insiders and promoters can cause runups, thus selling off their stock and subsequently issuing new stock options. This law reads as follows: The ONLY reason stocks are runup is because of incentive stock options. If stock options didn't exist, we wouldn't see any stock runups. Because most small cap companies are broke, they pay promoters with stock options. Thus, the promoter has a vested interest to get a company's share price above a particular level.
18. AXIOM OF HISTORY. Leopards almost never change their spots. The same guy running a shoddy stock promotion, a few years ago, is going to run a similar disaster again. It behooves every speculator to dig deep and find out who are the characters in this current play. Many times, the dishonest stock promoter runs the play from a background cover using a front man. You will find them, by looking for their associates. Crooks run in the same circles. Occasionally, you can be thrown off by a new name. He has a history. Find out what it is before speculating. No matter the cost, it is a lot cheaper than the losses you may incur in your speculation.
19. LAW OF PAPER. Share certificates are like corpses until a stock promoter gives them life. All paper is intrinsically worthless unless there is someone who wants to pay you, to take the stock off your hands. If there were no promoters in this world, then you would never be able to exit your position.
20. RULE OF THE EQUIPMENT. The speculator who has the most sophisticated quotation equipment, knows how to use this equipment, understands the quotes and what they represent, effectively uses his equipment, and also the fastest phone line to the trader, gets in and out of his paper the fastest.
21. LAW OF THE INSIDER. The speculator who actually knows what the insider is doing, whether it is accumulating or dumping his position, will be the most successful speculator. Everyone else is guessing and will have a greater or lesser degree of failure in his speculation.
22. THE SPOUSE FACTOR. This could also be a corollary to Murphy's Law for a deal. The wife wants a new house, a new car, etc. And the promoter or insider sells, sells, sells to afford these new toys. Down goes the stock price.
23. AXIOM OF THE BID. A new wave of buying into any stock is a method for an insider, promoter or disgruntled shareholder to exit the position. One should look at "the bid" as the key which unlocks the door and permits one to exit a stock position. Conversely, one may wish to consider "the offer" as the trapdoor which could send a speculator to the bowels of hell.
24. LAW OF THE HOLY ROLLER. Jesus threw the moneylenders out of the temple. Anyone running his play under the guise of Jesus would anger the Almighty and bring ruin to his shareholders. I guess the only reason a promoter might turn to religion is that no one except God will forgive him for what he has done to his fellow man.
25. THE LAW OF WASH TRADING. Insiders, stockbrokers and marketmakers "fabricate" trading volume by trading shares among each other, in order to deceive investors into thinking that the stock is liquid. In the hands of a madman, of which there are many, wash trading becomes an artistic manufacturing of massive trading in the stock. A promoter or insider (market manipulator) can set up three to twenty brokerage accounts and cleverly trade the stock, up and down the charts. As soon as "new blood" comes into the stock, suckered in by a quick runup, down comes the stock as the market manipulator dumps and shorts his own stock. In one recent case, the intricacy of one promoter's trading got so complex that he relied on computerized buy/sell signals so he, himself, didn't lose his shirt.
26. AXIOM OF FREE STOCK. Everyone would love to get free stock. Clever speculators, insiders and stock promoters are generally those that actually DO get free stock. Insiders simply blow out all of their paper into the strength of any liquidity and then re-load with stock options and/or warrants, maintaining their stranglehold on the company while lining their pockets. Stock promoters secretly demand under-the-table share certificates, channeled usually through an "independent" third party into a hidden account. Successful speculators monitor stock charts, buying low and selling most (or half or all) of their position, wait for the stock to retreat, and then re-load. There's no free lunch in this business. All of the above takes work. IF all speculators/investors knew this, there would probably be less market manipulation, or at the very least, market manipulators would have to come up with a new bag of tricks.
27. LAW OF NAME-DROPPING. In an effort to strengthen bidding in a stock, promoters and insiders may claim a BIG name is getting behind the company, i.e. a famous (wealthy) individual is buying the stock (lots of it), a big-time promoter is getting behind the stock, a highly regarded analyst will recommend the stock, or a well-known newsletter writer will bring his subscribers into the stock. It's all just "noise," generated by the promoters so they can prop up their share price and offload their on paper. This law is a variation of the next law.
28. LAW OF THE TAKEOVER. If you hear there is going to be a takeover, someone is offloading their position in that company and anticipates doing so at a higher price. Takeovers are done quietly and carefully so that the conquering company doesn't have to overpay for their shares.
29. AXIOM OF THE LEAK (RUMOR). Any rumor is manufactured by an insider or stock promoter in order to dump their position onto the gullible. Unless one is a prankster.
30. LAW OF THE MEDIA. The Media are the last to know about anything. No one in their right mind trusts or likes the media. The media, in order to appease the regulators, only report bad news and routinely challenge or distrust good news and put a "bad news spin" on good news. Further, the media distrust anyone who makes more money than they do, especially the guy who owns the newspaper.
31. SECRET OF INVESTMENT CONFERENCES. These occur at a hotel or convention center where insiders and promoters exhibit their wares and praise their company's future in order to dump part or all of their stock position onto investors, stockbrokers and money managers who don't know any better.
32. AXIOM OF MOTIVATION. When properly motivated, stock promoters can create "miracles", if only temporary in the share price appreciation. Generally, the greater the payoff, the more liquid the trading volume. Signs to look for include lucrative investor relations contracts and/or plenty of stock promoters all touting the stock to their groups. Nothing replaces the best motivation of all, for the insider, like private placement paper becoming free trading.
33. SECRET TO QUICK MONEY. The quicker you try to make your money, the faster you lose it. Quick money is usually made dishonestly (drug dealing, racketeering, insider trading, etc.) or in a lottery. Nothing replaces burning the midnight oil, long hours of toiling, effective data gathering and data analysis and bright ideas. Many try using short-cuts, which ultimately become dead ends.
34. THE TRUTH ABOUT MOTHERS. Everything your mother ever told you about life, applies to the stock markets. Everything parents told their daughters about boys also applies to stock promoters.
35. LAW OF ORPHANS. No one is willing to own up or take responsibility for a disastrous crash in a stock or a failed stock promotion. Whenever there is a major success story, everyone takes credit for that company's success. The further you are out of the loop, the harder it will be for you to determine who was responsible for a company's success or failure.
36. FLAVOR-OF-THE-MONTH AXIOM. No individual ever survives as a Flavor of the Month. One can have an enviable string of successes, but eventually the insiders, shortsellers or stock promoters will destroy him. Failing that, the media will ruin him. Failing that, the regulators will handcuff and gag him, or even jail him. No one has ever survived past all of those roadblocks. Each roadblock wears the superstar down to the point, where he can no longer think straight and wonders if "all of this is worth doing anyway." Flavors-of-the month, like ice cream, eventually melt down to a dribble.
37. THE SECRET OF THE NEWSLETTER WRITER. Any newsletter writer providing ongoing reportage on Canadian mining or small cap stocks has a vested interest, whether disclosed or not. Someone is paying the freight and rarely is it the subscriber. (The writer either has a position or is being paid or hopes to become "famous" by covering a specific stock.) Publishing a newsletter is a very expensive proposition, with a high casualty rate. Look at which "popular" newsletters were published during the late 1960s or the early 1980s and see if any are still being published today.
38. AXIOM OF SECRETS. If there really is going to be a big discovery or a big contract or a big deal, the stock promoter or insider will never tell you first, if at all, until the news is made public. He knows it would be illegal to give you inside information so he won't. Whatever he does tell you may have no bearing in reality.The more desperate the promoter, the more outrageous the promises; the more incredible the deal.
39. THE SECRET TO HOWE STREET. All any of these stock promoters want to buy with the profits they make off you is this: Respectability. Instead, they buy drugs and booze. They utterly lack any self-respect, from the best to the worst. They are criminals who have whistled past the graveyard, more times than a cat with nine lives, praying that they can avoid being caught. At the very best, they hope to parlay their worthless share certificates, through a somewhat credible promotion, into bigger real estate and cash. At their worst, they merely wish to cover their annual bar tab. The average person, whom they routinely fleece, has far more self-respect than any of these promoters will ever achieve. None of them will ever become respectable, especially not in their own minds. This absence of self-respect may help explain the rampant alcoholism and drug abuse among stock promoters in Vancouver.
40. THE LAW OF MONEY. History shows us that Money is attracted to the individual who can effectively and articulately communicate. Stock promoters routinely can repeat a good story. The most successful speculators are those whose communications skills match or surpass the best promoters. The best CEO is the most effective communicator.
41. AXIOM OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS . Technical analysis does not deceive the speculator. A stock promoter's worst enemy is the stock chart. Correctly interpreted stock charts never lie, although many speculators have no clue as to how to read a stock chart. Analysis may also vary from chartist to chartist.
42. THE HYPE FACTOR . Hyperbolic statements can artificially inflate a stock's price, temporarily. Long enough for a shortselling syndicate or a group of professional traders and insiders to reap huge rewards. Often, a combination of a speculator's naiveté and his enthusiasm about a company can lead to "over the top" statements. Eventually, he learns his lesson. Stock promoters favor newsletter writers who are inexperienced in the business, as they can be told what to write and are eager to be offered that opportunity.
43. THE LAW OF SEASONS. When it comes to mining plays, buy in December and sell in May. Buy when the promoters are out of town; sell when they are in full swing.
44. AXIOM OF DRILL RESULTS. Buy when the drill goes down; sell when the shaft comes up. In other words, the heady promotional statements and expectations are issued during the drill campaign and while awaiting assays. That is when a speculator most likely benefits from a stock's runup. Because most drill results are disappointing, the smart speculator is completely out of his position before the assays are announced.
45. THE LAW OF NEWS RELEASES. Buy on mystery, sell on history. Buy on rumor, sell on the news. These are well-worn clichés that rarely disappoint. Occasionally, a company's stock will run strongly after a news release. In the small cap stock sector, most news releases are a promotional device, used by insiders, to generate fantastic trading volume so they can exit a portion of their position.
46. THE SUCCESS FACTOR. Most mining success stories are complete accidents. On the order of a "Jed Clampett" finding oil in the TV series, "The Beverly Hillbillies." With many important discoveries, throughout the history of mining plays, one or many insiders had virtually blown out of their entire position and/or were shorting their own stock, in anticipation the company's drill results would be a disappointment. Part of the stock's runup might also have included covering their shortselling and obtaining a fresh, new position.
47. AXIOM OF NOISE . The more noise you hear during a stock promotion, the harder the stock will fall when the promotion is completed. Stock promoters are only interested in trading volume, for share-dumping purposes, which can only be created with a series of loud bangs in the media world. Generally, by the time you hear about the stock, the runup is over and the distribution phase has already started, followed by a slow or abrupt decline in the share price.
48. THE LAW OF LIARS. They repeat their lies and falsehoods again and again and again. They don't just tell one white lie and feel guilty. They lie in every aspect of their life. One can use this against the liar by doing the exact opposite of what he tells you to do. Liars are suckers for other liars.
49. AXIOM OF TRADING VOLUME. Trading volume is increased solely to distribute a large position from a single shareholder, or a few shareholders, to the masses. All an insider ever wants is trading volume so he has enough liquidity into which to dump his position. This is the only reason stock promoters are hired.
50. THE ULTIMATE RULE. Paper is paper and cash is cash. The only reason you are holding paper instead of cash is you honestly believe your paper will eventually be worth more than the cash. Amateurs buy paper. Professionals convert their paper to cash. Cash is King. Paper is essentially worthless if there are no buyers.
Conclusion...
This essay was not intended, but may serve, as a sociological study of the criminal minds at work within the financial marketplace. Speculators also have to agree to be criminals, to a degree, in that they expect something for nothing. The essence of the criminal is to get something for nothing. While theft, larceny, insurance fraud and burglary are broadly condemned within this society, it appears perfectly "all right" for the speculator to swoop into and out of a stock, for a quick profit. That is pickpocketing, plain and simple, and should be branded as such. Thus, it is no great surprise, to me, that an increasing number of the Internet "gurus" have told me they'd like to launch their own deal, i.e. to become an insider or stock promoter, themselves. It is a quick slide into the loony bin for anyone aggressively speculating in these markets.
The entire problem of the small cap stock market is the illegal transfer of wealth from the naive investor to the sophisticated trader. Institutional fraud runs uncontrolled throughout the fabric of these markets. Bribing stockbrokers appears to be the "only way to do business" in many circles. Bribing fund managers is nearly mandatory if a mining company wants European financing. What amazes me is that October's FBI sting of insiders and stock promoters wasn't even the tip of the tip of the iceberg -- they didn't even scratch the surface, nor did they nab the key figures. For all the hoopla and the celebration of the regulators over the recent successes in "stopping fraud," they all know, too well, that hardly a dent occurred. The actual depth of the amount of stock fraud, outright deception, bribery and dishonesty in the financial markets is far greater than any securities regulatory body is willing to admit. They know about the fraud -- but then, they have "their future" to look out for, as well. There's a job at Merrill Lynch, Charles Schwab, Canaccord or Smith Barney waiting for them. It's OK to "get the little guy," but they know better than to tangle with the powers that be, which run the financial markets from New York to Tokyo, from London to Vancouver, and everywhere in between.
Essentially, the securities regulators hold their esteemed positions, and are backed by their respective state/provincial/federal governments, for no other reason than to ensure that the small investor CONTINUES to get screwed every which way but Sunday. For if all the small investors always made a profit in their investments or speculations, the poor professionals wouldn't be able to steal as handsomely as they do now. This may also explain why marketmakers continue to FREELY rape small companies, while the regulators focus their attention on the stock promoters and insiders.n small caps.
The Dirty Rotten Secrets of the Small Cap Markets
1. LAW OF THE PEZ. This is dedicated to Murray Pezim, once the most powerful stock promoter in all of Canada. According to legend, Mr. Pezim, upon hearing that someone had made a killing on his stock play, immediately remarked, "Shareholder profits are short-term loans." Ultimately, if you continue your small-cap speculations, you will lose. Either the markets will turn or you will drop your guard, but eventually, you will lose. One should understand that the small cap stock markets run pretty much like a casino.... the longer you stay at the tables, the greater your chances of failure.
2. MOTTO OF THE STOCK PROMOTER. Sell when everyone is buying and buy when everyone else is selling. Actually, more often it is, sell when everyone else is buying, completely exit the play, and go find something else for them to buy later. It may even be: Start shorting your deal when you've sold out your entire position so you can score even more profit on the way down. There are corollaries to this motto, such as "never get married to a deal," or "never believe in your own deal," or "have a new deal ready to rock & roll as soon as the current one flops."
3. LAW OF THE UPTICKS. Stocks that are running higher are said to be upticking. Despite every effort I have made to emphasize that the best time to buy a stock is when it is low and boasts a sorry-looking flatline stock chart, speculators inevitably chase stocks to new highs. Stock promoters and insiders buy, or obtain a position, at the low and sell during the promotion or "discovery." Sadly, there will always be some type of promotion that will create upticks and speculators will chase that stock to a new level. Greed generates upticks. What stock promoters know that you don't is this law: A herd of speculators will only buy on the UPTICK.
4. AXIOM OF GREED. In an earlier essay, I isolated that greed originated from a "perceived" lack of speculative opportunities. This false perception causes a speculator to get greedy and chase a stock to a new level. If one has a hundred speculative opportunities on their plate, one is less eager to chase any specific stock. The lesser the number of opportunities one reviews, the greedier one becomes to chase a heavily promoted stock. A stock promoter will, thus, make "his stock" appear to look like the only game in town worth playing. Greed essentially emanates from deprivation.
5. RULE OF CONFUSION. The only time one rushes into a quick decision is when they are confused or disoriented or misled. The stock promoter's greatest weapon is CONFUSION: Catch a speculator off guard and sucker him into a stock. The more disoriented or confused the speculator, the greater his chances of being snared. Stock promotions include an overwhelming amount of data, reports, corporate reviews and so forth that are packaged in such a way as to confuse the speculator. If, at any time, you are overwhelmed with out-of-control emotions or data which you don't understand, it is better to stay out of the play.
6. SECRET OF EXCITEMENT. You've heard about the "forbidden fruit" or "unknown pleasures." As long as something remains a mystery, it can create an "excitement." Excitement is a sensation which one commonly associates with pleasure. Therefore, when an exciting proposition is offered, you may readily accept it in order to experience THAT sensation. When someone heaps excitement after excitement, upon you, in either the written or spoken word and/or with graphics (visuals, photographs, charts, drawings, etc.) and especially in a loud or emphatic manner, you become disoriented and confused. One overcomes this "sensation of the unknown or forbidden" through experience, often with a rude and unpleasant awakening. Stock promoters abuse your inexperience, and naiveté, to sell you stock. ALL mining speculations are exciting until the assays come back or a mine goes into development. Then reality sets in.
7. LAW OF WAITING. The longer you wait, the greater your chances for failure. This applies to both holding a stock which is declining and to a stock which is running. The odds are greater than 90% against you... that you will fail in a speculation, if you wait for it to recover or if you chase a stock which has already begun its run. Generally, a stock moves up in less than two weeks, often in two to five days. The waiting period, for a stock to allegedly recover, is the slow, dragged out retreat you later observe in the share price. As believers stop believing, the share price declines, often never recovering. Of course, if one wants to wait forever, then eventually the stock may recover. The longer one waits, during a runup, the smaller one's potential profits and the greater one's exposure to losses. (One important caveat: Occasionally, there are a few good deals--about 20 or 30 annually--when one SHOULD wait for the company to mature. Almost always, they come out of left field and, rarely, does anyone know in advance which company will become tomorrow's success story.)
8. AXIOM OF BELIEVING. The higher your expectations in a stock, the greater your chances of losing money in that speculation. All of the promotion is geared to make you a "believer." Most speculators are betting on a tip or a rumor. They are taking someone else's "word" for the outcome. Absolutely no one should invest or speculate in a stock without understanding the risks as well as the reward. Stock promoters create believers by providing ONLY the reward potential, without also including the risk factors. Believers eventually discover the risks, long after the stock has begun its decline.
9. LAW OF LOSERS. Oddly, those most attracted to speculative markets are failures in other aspects of their lives. They may be wealthy, but consider themselves, in some way, as having "failed." Medical doctors are prime targets of stock promoters, as they are not only affluent may have "settled for less" in their lives or feel they "are owed more" for the work they do. Whoever has failed, in some key aspect of their life, often tries to make up for it by gambling....often speculating in these markets. The loser is always trying to compensate for a failure in another part of his life and continues to heavily lose as a speculator. (Note: I stay in touch with certain losers and use them as a yardstick for my trading -- when they buy, I sell; when they sell, I buy. The loser has a knack for exiting his position, a day or a week before a major runup; or he/she simply always buys at the top of the runup. The downside to communicating with losers is that they are so darned indecisive and fretters; their worrying can and does rub off and creates a confusion for oneself.)
10. LAW OF THE SUCKER. PT Barnum was right: A sucker is born every minute. For every speculator that is wiped out, a fresh one is champing at the bit to start betting. Stock promoters prop up their plays by finding new blood to drain. The greener the speculator, the redder the carpet laid out for him. If there were no new suckers coming into the game, it would all be over.
11. SECRET OF THE AREA PLAY. Virtually all area plays fail. Rarely is there a long-term beneficiary to that area play, other than the initial company which made the discovery. The secret of the area play depends upon #1 (Law of the Pez). Those who profited from the share price runup of the company making the discovery are then offered a "second chance" or a third or a fourth with the rush of new companies into that area. Primarily, these companies are trying to finance other explorations elsewhere, but the fact that they staked some ground or bought some cheap claims doesn't stop them from parlaying that into an artificially inflated market capitalization. Inevitably, 99% of these companies fail to deliver, which is soon reflected in their vaporized share prices. Stock promoters, knowing well their chances of success were always very slim at best, long ago dumped their shares. The last one into the area play tends to have the worst chances of success.
12. THE GURU AXIOM. The least profitable time to follow any guru (stock promoter, newsletter writer, company insider) is immediately following his last successful play. The cliché that "he is only as good as his last play" is a promotional device effectively utilized to attract new money into a new play. If one looks at some of Canada's recent success stories in the mining business, the BEST time to follow the guru is immediately after his or her failure. Those who "had it," failed miserably and later bounced back seem to offer the highest probability of success. Often, there is a rush of money into the guru's "new play," which quickly exits when they discover that "this ain't the same one as the last one." It never is. Of course, every guru is keen on pointing out all of his previously successful plays and forgets about his failures. Self-fulfilling prophesies require substance in order to survive. Catch the "gurus" when they are down and out and heed their advice at that point in their careers. You may increase your chances of success. Hint: Sheer desperation drives them to repeat their success or to completely leave the business.
13. CANADA'S BEST KEPT SECRET. Many Canadian speculators don't pay for their stock. These Canadian speculators bet on stocks, against the equity in their account. We've heard about T-3, etc. That is bull. The truth is often, more like T-12 or T-20 (as in 12 or 20 days to settle instead of the required three days). Brokerage firms have been known to extend, to their best clients, the time they can hold "unpaid stock" for weeks. What is also not very well known is that brokerage firms can, and frequently do, short sell any stock which remains unpaid (they do so to protect themselves). Thus, during an exciting runup, one observes (or hears about) massive shortselling of a stock -- the stock wasn't paid for, so the brokerage firm shorts it. A brokerage firm's credit manager can quite excitedly extend your "credit terms" so that you have "more time to pay for your stock." Essentially, you end up betting against yourself, under these circumstances, because the brokerage firm is shorting your purchase. Later, you end up selling at a loss and the brokerage firm covers at a profit. The house nearly always wins. Your stockbroker gets his commission whether you lose or not.
14. THE CANADIAN LAW OF SHORT SELLING. While it is very expensive and deadly for the unsophisticated speculator to short a Canadian stock, brokerage firms can easily short stocks. They short against their "inventory." Generally, any rush of excitement into a stock is done under a short, speculative time frame (whereupon the speculator doesn't actually pay for his stock). Brokerage firms short sell against the unpaid speculation and drive the stock price down, down, down. As very large Canadian brokerage firms also accept many US stock orders, they short sell virtually every order which arrives. While the US investor pays for his/her stock, the Canadian firm can short sell against it, because rarely is delivery ever taken on that stock. As long as the certificates remain in the brokerage firm, it can be shorted.
15. AXIOM OF MOTION. What emotionally upsets any speculator is a LACK of motion. It is the absence of motion which prevents a speculator from patiently accumulating shares in a flatline stock (the share price remains constant at, or near, the floor of its stock chart). Speculators are eager to make their money work for them. Thus, if a stock doesn't move, they panic. Gradual downward motion rarely creates a panic. Imagine yourself in a well-lit room with a dimmer light. Stock promoters gradually turn down the lights until you finally discover you are sitting in the dark. Conversely, when they want to create the excitement, they abruptly turn on the lights. A stock forever trading at the same price creates an emotional upset, thus the gradual "up and down" motion manufactured by stock promoters and insiders and brokers. "Get it to move" is their motto if they want you to hold your position. UP offers hope and a recovery of your initial investment or (finally!) a profit after having waited so long. DOWN drives fear up your spine and you remain fixated in the stock, like a deer in a car's headlights.
16. SECRET OF PANIC. If you hold a position in a stock and are panicking, you should not be holding that stock position. You probably don't know enough about the company or have mentally spent that money for some other purpose than speculating in that stock. You are also very low on the food chain of information. A stock promoter's investor relations department primarily exists to minimize, reduce or eliminate the panic you feel in obtaining and holding your stock position. Panic is manufactured in approximately the same way excitement is created. The secret to overcoming panic is this: When it all looks like the end of the world, that may be the best time to buy; when it all looks like the world is made of cream cheese, run for the exit doors. Please realize that, generally, if someone has created a panic within you, it is for some ulterior motive -- they are aggressively trying to get you to do the opposite of what you should be doing.
17. LAW OF STOCK OPTIONS. Insiders like to hold free stock, just like anyone. Stock options exist so that insiders and promoters can cause runups, thus selling off their stock and subsequently issuing new stock options. This law reads as follows: The ONLY reason stocks are runup is because of incentive stock options. If stock options didn't exist, we wouldn't see any stock runups. Because most small cap companies are broke, they pay promoters with stock options. Thus, the promoter has a vested interest to get a company's share price above a particular level.
18. AXIOM OF HISTORY. Leopards almost never change their spots. The same guy running a shoddy stock promotion, a few years ago, is going to run a similar disaster again. It behooves every speculator to dig deep and find out who are the characters in this current play. Many times, the dishonest stock promoter runs the play from a background cover using a front man. You will find them, by looking for their associates. Crooks run in the same circles. Occasionally, you can be thrown off by a new name. He has a history. Find out what it is before speculating. No matter the cost, it is a lot cheaper than the losses you may incur in your speculation.
19. LAW OF PAPER. Share certificates are like corpses until a stock promoter gives them life. All paper is intrinsically worthless unless there is someone who wants to pay you, to take the stock off your hands. If there were no promoters in this world, then you would never be able to exit your position.
20. RULE OF THE EQUIPMENT. The speculator who has the most sophisticated quotation equipment, knows how to use this equipment, understands the quotes and what they represent, effectively uses his equipment, and also the fastest phone line to the trader, gets in and out of his paper the fastest.
21. LAW OF THE INSIDER. The speculator who actually knows what the insider is doing, whether it is accumulating or dumping his position, will be the most successful speculator. Everyone else is guessing and will have a greater or lesser degree of failure in his speculation.
22. THE SPOUSE FACTOR. This could also be a corollary to Murphy's Law for a deal. The wife wants a new house, a new car, etc. And the promoter or insider sells, sells, sells to afford these new toys. Down goes the stock price.
23. AXIOM OF THE BID. A new wave of buying into any stock is a method for an insider, promoter or disgruntled shareholder to exit the position. One should look at "the bid" as the key which unlocks the door and permits one to exit a stock position. Conversely, one may wish to consider "the offer" as the trapdoor which could send a speculator to the bowels of hell.
24. LAW OF THE HOLY ROLLER. Jesus threw the moneylenders out of the temple. Anyone running his play under the guise of Jesus would anger the Almighty and bring ruin to his shareholders. I guess the only reason a promoter might turn to religion is that no one except God will forgive him for what he has done to his fellow man.
25. THE LAW OF WASH TRADING. Insiders, stockbrokers and marketmakers "fabricate" trading volume by trading shares among each other, in order to deceive investors into thinking that the stock is liquid. In the hands of a madman, of which there are many, wash trading becomes an artistic manufacturing of massive trading in the stock. A promoter or insider (market manipulator) can set up three to twenty brokerage accounts and cleverly trade the stock, up and down the charts. As soon as "new blood" comes into the stock, suckered in by a quick runup, down comes the stock as the market manipulator dumps and shorts his own stock. In one recent case, the intricacy of one promoter's trading got so complex that he relied on computerized buy/sell signals so he, himself, didn't lose his shirt.
26. AXIOM OF FREE STOCK. Everyone would love to get free stock. Clever speculators, insiders and stock promoters are generally those that actually DO get free stock. Insiders simply blow out all of their paper into the strength of any liquidity and then re-load with stock options and/or warrants, maintaining their stranglehold on the company while lining their pockets. Stock promoters secretly demand under-the-table share certificates, channeled usually through an "independent" third party into a hidden account. Successful speculators monitor stock charts, buying low and selling most (or half or all) of their position, wait for the stock to retreat, and then re-load. There's no free lunch in this business. All of the above takes work. IF all speculators/investors knew this, there would probably be less market manipulation, or at the very least, market manipulators would have to come up with a new bag of tricks.
27. LAW OF NAME-DROPPING. In an effort to strengthen bidding in a stock, promoters and insiders may claim a BIG name is getting behind the company, i.e. a famous (wealthy) individual is buying the stock (lots of it), a big-time promoter is getting behind the stock, a highly regarded analyst will recommend the stock, or a well-known newsletter writer will bring his subscribers into the stock. It's all just "noise," generated by the promoters so they can prop up their share price and offload their on paper. This law is a variation of the next law.
28. LAW OF THE TAKEOVER. If you hear there is going to be a takeover, someone is offloading their position in that company and anticipates doing so at a higher price. Takeovers are done quietly and carefully so that the conquering company doesn't have to overpay for their shares.
29. AXIOM OF THE LEAK (RUMOR). Any rumor is manufactured by an insider or stock promoter in order to dump their position onto the gullible. Unless one is a prankster.
30. LAW OF THE MEDIA. The Media are the last to know about anything. No one in their right mind trusts or likes the media. The media, in order to appease the regulators, only report bad news and routinely challenge or distrust good news and put a "bad news spin" on good news. Further, the media distrust anyone who makes more money than they do, especially the guy who owns the newspaper.
31. SECRET OF INVESTMENT CONFERENCES. These occur at a hotel or convention center where insiders and promoters exhibit their wares and praise their company's future in order to dump part or all of their stock position onto investors, stockbrokers and money managers who don't know any better.
32. AXIOM OF MOTIVATION. When properly motivated, stock promoters can create "miracles", if only temporary in the share price appreciation. Generally, the greater the payoff, the more liquid the trading volume. Signs to look for include lucrative investor relations contracts and/or plenty of stock promoters all touting the stock to their groups. Nothing replaces the best motivation of all, for the insider, like private placement paper becoming free trading.
33. SECRET TO QUICK MONEY. The quicker you try to make your money, the faster you lose it. Quick money is usually made dishonestly (drug dealing, racketeering, insider trading, etc.) or in a lottery. Nothing replaces burning the midnight oil, long hours of toiling, effective data gathering and data analysis and bright ideas. Many try using short-cuts, which ultimately become dead ends.
34. THE TRUTH ABOUT MOTHERS. Everything your mother ever told you about life, applies to the stock markets. Everything parents told their daughters about boys also applies to stock promoters.
35. LAW OF ORPHANS. No one is willing to own up or take responsibility for a disastrous crash in a stock or a failed stock promotion. Whenever there is a major success story, everyone takes credit for that company's success. The further you are out of the loop, the harder it will be for you to determine who was responsible for a company's success or failure.
36. FLAVOR-OF-THE-MONTH AXIOM. No individual ever survives as a Flavor of the Month. One can have an enviable string of successes, but eventually the insiders, shortsellers or stock promoters will destroy him. Failing that, the media will ruin him. Failing that, the regulators will handcuff and gag him, or even jail him. No one has ever survived past all of those roadblocks. Each roadblock wears the superstar down to the point, where he can no longer think straight and wonders if "all of this is worth doing anyway." Flavors-of-the month, like ice cream, eventually melt down to a dribble.
37. THE SECRET OF THE NEWSLETTER WRITER. Any newsletter writer providing ongoing reportage on Canadian mining or small cap stocks has a vested interest, whether disclosed or not. Someone is paying the freight and rarely is it the subscriber. (The writer either has a position or is being paid or hopes to become "famous" by covering a specific stock.) Publishing a newsletter is a very expensive proposition, with a high casualty rate. Look at which "popular" newsletters were published during the late 1960s or the early 1980s and see if any are still being published today.
38. AXIOM OF SECRETS. If there really is going to be a big discovery or a big contract or a big deal, the stock promoter or insider will never tell you first, if at all, until the news is made public. He knows it would be illegal to give you inside information so he won't. Whatever he does tell you may have no bearing in reality.The more desperate the promoter, the more outrageous the promises; the more incredible the deal.
39. THE SECRET TO HOWE STREET. All any of these stock promoters want to buy with the profits they make off you is this: Respectability. Instead, they buy drugs and booze. They utterly lack any self-respect, from the best to the worst. They are criminals who have whistled past the graveyard, more times than a cat with nine lives, praying that they can avoid being caught. At the very best, they hope to parlay their worthless share certificates, through a somewhat credible promotion, into bigger real estate and cash. At their worst, they merely wish to cover their annual bar tab. The average person, whom they routinely fleece, has far more self-respect than any of these promoters will ever achieve. None of them will ever become respectable, especially not in their own minds. This absence of self-respect may help explain the rampant alcoholism and drug abuse among stock promoters in Vancouver.
40. THE LAW OF MONEY. History shows us that Money is attracted to the individual who can effectively and articulately communicate. Stock promoters routinely can repeat a good story. The most successful speculators are those whose communications skills match or surpass the best promoters. The best CEO is the most effective communicator.
41. AXIOM OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS . Technical analysis does not deceive the speculator. A stock promoter's worst enemy is the stock chart. Correctly interpreted stock charts never lie, although many speculators have no clue as to how to read a stock chart. Analysis may also vary from chartist to chartist.
42. THE HYPE FACTOR . Hyperbolic statements can artificially inflate a stock's price, temporarily. Long enough for a shortselling syndicate or a group of professional traders and insiders to reap huge rewards. Often, a combination of a speculator's naiveté and his enthusiasm about a company can lead to "over the top" statements. Eventually, he learns his lesson. Stock promoters favor newsletter writers who are inexperienced in the business, as they can be told what to write and are eager to be offered that opportunity.
43. THE LAW OF SEASONS. When it comes to mining plays, buy in December and sell in May. Buy when the promoters are out of town; sell when they are in full swing.
44. AXIOM OF DRILL RESULTS. Buy when the drill goes down; sell when the shaft comes up. In other words, the heady promotional statements and expectations are issued during the drill campaign and while awaiting assays. That is when a speculator most likely benefits from a stock's runup. Because most drill results are disappointing, the smart speculator is completely out of his position before the assays are announced.
45. THE LAW OF NEWS RELEASES. Buy on mystery, sell on history. Buy on rumor, sell on the news. These are well-worn clichés that rarely disappoint. Occasionally, a company's stock will run strongly after a news release. In the small cap stock sector, most news releases are a promotional device, used by insiders, to generate fantastic trading volume so they can exit a portion of their position.
46. THE SUCCESS FACTOR. Most mining success stories are complete accidents. On the order of a "Jed Clampett" finding oil in the TV series, "The Beverly Hillbillies." With many important discoveries, throughout the history of mining plays, one or many insiders had virtually blown out of their entire position and/or were shorting their own stock, in anticipation the company's drill results would be a disappointment. Part of the stock's runup might also have included covering their shortselling and obtaining a fresh, new position.
47. AXIOM OF NOISE . The more noise you hear during a stock promotion, the harder the stock will fall when the promotion is completed. Stock promoters are only interested in trading volume, for share-dumping purposes, which can only be created with a series of loud bangs in the media world. Generally, by the time you hear about the stock, the runup is over and the distribution phase has already started, followed by a slow or abrupt decline in the share price.
48. THE LAW OF LIARS. They repeat their lies and falsehoods again and again and again. They don't just tell one white lie and feel guilty. They lie in every aspect of their life. One can use this against the liar by doing the exact opposite of what he tells you to do. Liars are suckers for other liars.
49. AXIOM OF TRADING VOLUME. Trading volume is increased solely to distribute a large position from a single shareholder, or a few shareholders, to the masses. All an insider ever wants is trading volume so he has enough liquidity into which to dump his position. This is the only reason stock promoters are hired.
50. THE ULTIMATE RULE. Paper is paper and cash is cash. The only reason you are holding paper instead of cash is you honestly believe your paper will eventually be worth more than the cash. Amateurs buy paper. Professionals convert their paper to cash. Cash is King. Paper is essentially worthless if there are no buyers.
Conclusion...
This essay was not intended, but may serve, as a sociological study of the criminal minds at work within the financial marketplace. Speculators also have to agree to be criminals, to a degree, in that they expect something for nothing. The essence of the criminal is to get something for nothing. While theft, larceny, insurance fraud and burglary are broadly condemned within this society, it appears perfectly "all right" for the speculator to swoop into and out of a stock, for a quick profit. That is pickpocketing, plain and simple, and should be branded as such. Thus, it is no great surprise, to me, that an increasing number of the Internet "gurus" have told me they'd like to launch their own deal, i.e. to become an insider or stock promoter, themselves. It is a quick slide into the loony bin for anyone aggressively speculating in these markets.
The entire problem of the small cap stock market is the illegal transfer of wealth from the naive investor to the sophisticated trader. Institutional fraud runs uncontrolled throughout the fabric of these markets. Bribing stockbrokers appears to be the "only way to do business" in many circles. Bribing fund managers is nearly mandatory if a mining company wants European financing. What amazes me is that October's FBI sting of insiders and stock promoters wasn't even the tip of the tip of the iceberg -- they didn't even scratch the surface, nor did they nab the key figures. For all the hoopla and the celebration of the regulators over the recent successes in "stopping fraud," they all know, too well, that hardly a dent occurred. The actual depth of the amount of stock fraud, outright deception, bribery and dishonesty in the financial markets is far greater than any securities regulatory body is willing to admit. They know about the fraud -- but then, they have "their future" to look out for, as well. There's a job at Merrill Lynch, Charles Schwab, Canaccord or Smith Barney waiting for them. It's OK to "get the little guy," but they know better than to tangle with the powers that be, which run the financial markets from New York to Tokyo, from London to Vancouver, and everywhere in between.
Essentially, the securities regulators hold their esteemed positions, and are backed by their respective state/provincial/federal governments, for no other reason than to ensure that the small investor CONTINUES to get screwed every which way but Sunday. For if all the small investors always made a profit in their investments or speculations, the poor professionals wouldn't be able to steal as handsomely as they do now. This may also explain why marketmakers continue to FREELY rape small companies, while the regulators focus their attention on the stock promoters and insiders.n small caps.
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