Friday, February 13, 2015 10:33:42 AM
as i am more invested in the sister company Vencor. However I have built a position here as well.
I came to this later than many here and share the following.
I think it is important to step back and see what seems to be happening. Vencor, with CEO James Gaspard at the helm has positioned itself as the supplier for Vegas accounts. Of course other suppliers may arise including the ATI venture. But why should Vega invest in its own plant, when it can have a very close relationship with a supplier in hand.
Per recent release the last add-on capacity at Vencor produces at low cost (still like to learn more of course). It doesn't make sense for Vega to raise and spend capital to produce when it can simply buy at a (I assume) a great price from a supplier.
The attachment to ATI is understandable as for a time it was the only game out there - but my guess is that ATI is/was not a hungry commercial group...having a more academic bent and root.
As most know this tech does not have a deep moat...the advantage and success will go to first movers of scale...who can consolidate as much as possible, line up longterm contracts with larger users or whole sale distributers, and who can operate smartly in a tight price, low margin environment.
The other item i keep an eye on is that the other Vega product is Char and comes from....James Gaspard's BioChar co. Some obvious prospect writing on that wall.
It is very frustrating on both sides to not have better communication - but if we assume there are some big shifting of gears here- perhaps long term arrangements and changes - as well as the financials...perhaps they cant say much as yet.
My sense is some dust will settle soon....and the picture will be bright.
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