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Re: RockyW post# 21456

Monday, 01/26/2015 11:34:17 PM

Monday, January 26, 2015 11:34:17 PM

Post# of 24848

However, given today's weather forecast of 30+", I have to think revenues for January may now be $5M. I just think the number will be lower given the holidays coupled with the snow storm. Some say it may be the worst snow storm ever recorded, even worse than the famous blizzard od 78.
MAV has its HQs in Clifton, NJ. I have to think it may even closed given the blizzard and the Garden State Parkway likely being closed to traffic with NY warning travelers to stay off the roads. Just a week of lost revenues at $250k/day is about $1.5M.


Disagree 100%... …in fact, the premise of your post sounds remarkably identical to the spin job that JOSEPH ZAMPETTI and his core group of Section 17(b)-violators and .05 PIPE-holders had began publicly touting earlier today in an effort to prevent OTHERS from selling in the event that JAN numbers fall well below expectations...

(1)
This storm has been anticipated.

(2)
Businesses such as pharmacies, who have many ingredients that require temperature-controlled storage, assuredly have back-up generators to keep power flowing thru not only to power refrigeration units but also all other electronic equipment – such as servers.

(3)
Compounding is a niche Rx item. It is unlikely that all – heck, even most – of Main Ave’s patients all live in the immediate neighboring communities. Point being that even w/o any storm, the overwhelming majority of customers do NOT physically walk in and pick up their Rx’s, but instead submit their Rx’s electronically (most likely directly from their physician, or if it is a refill, then the Rx is already on file w/Main Ave) and have the finished compounded product shipped to them throughout the 7 states where Main Ave conducts business.

(4)
Main Ave is a pharmacy that serves patients as part of the medical/health services sector. These businesses need to continue offering their primary services regardless of the weather. Main Ave is NOT a restaurant. Main Ave is NOT a movie theather. Main Ave is NOT an amusement park. Main Ave is NOT a sporting/event venue. These “discretionary” businesses will suffer and lose revenues due to inclement weather. Rx’s are NOT “discretionary”. If someone needs a Rx, they will order it regardless of the weather and regardless of whether it is a weekend or holiday.

(5)
If Main Ave is competently running its operations and does what virtually 99% of all other businesses do (and remember, the Northeast goes thru harsh winters every year, just as the eastern seaboard goes thru hurricane season each year and so these regions know how to prepare for these weather systems and have business continuity plans in place to work remotely), then even if their physical brick and mortar store is closed, key personnel can still ELECTRONICALLY retrieve and process paperwork related to new Rx’s remotely (i.e. from their homes) because of (2) above.

(6)
Because of (4) and (5) above, all that a physical shutdown of their brick and mortar location should impact is their BACKLOG of approved orders waiting to be filled and shipped out to customers. It should have MINIMAL impact on the “approved orders” number that is reported.

(7)
Bottom Line is this: JAN has 25 business days for Main Ave (total days in month less Sundays and less observed holidays). DEC had 26. If JAN approved orders simply remains flat, then even after adjusting for one less business day, there is ZERO reason for JAN approved orders to come in under $5M. If it comes in significantly lower than $5M, shareholders should know that it would NOT be because of the snowstorm, but rather due to another reason. DO NOT BE MISLED. Even if BS Schneiderman tries to PR it as a reason for low JAN numbers, I would caution all shareholders to view it as a spin job – especially if the approved orders number is SIGNIFICANTLY lower than $5M, as the greater the decrease in revenues, the LESS likely it is that it was caused by inclement weather.