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Thursday, January 22, 2015 5:38:04 PM
RXMD: A modest comparison and target
Epidemic flu levels, doubled monthly prescriptions via cost-cutting partnership, and an underlying growth trend ... watch what happens when those January numbers come..
For an example, see this chart of almost the exact same situation which occurred last year (which I happened to be very involved in):
http://scharts.co/1BiCCjo
-- I was trying to hop in and out and damn-near missed it
same business model
same new record sales in prior year - particularly in the fourth quarter (clear growth trend)
same catalysts even coming down to the timing (new record January sales PR COMING)
smaller share structure for the huge run AND after fully-diluted -- the price won't come all the way back down, it may just stay up there (PXYN - the comparison - ballooned to 1.4B O/S bringing the price back to Earth)
much less debt which will be completely settled
nearly profitable - likely be profitable this year
trading at multiples less than its value but not for long
Here's a simple, highly-conservative price target:
-- assuming an O/S that is fully diluted = A/S = 100M
-- assuming zero growth in the fourth quarter (even though we know they had record revenues); extrapolating the revenue from first 3 quarter, it gives 2014 yearly revenue of $10.1M
-- assuming 1.1x revenue market cap (reasonably-low given growth and potential)
Market cap = 1.1 x $10.1M = $11.11M
Price per share = ($11.11M/100M) = 0.1111 (2.7x today's closing price @0.041)
Now jack the target up when we discover January's massive revenue numbers via PR (which can drop at any time), PRs giving us projections for the year, expansion and distribution of meds into other states, higher than assumed 2014 revenues, profitability (making the P/E ratio conservatively 30-60)
RXMD -- If you don't believe me: that's fine. Watch and learn how it's done
Epidemic flu levels, doubled monthly prescriptions via cost-cutting partnership, and an underlying growth trend ... watch what happens when those January numbers come..
For an example, see this chart of almost the exact same situation which occurred last year (which I happened to be very involved in):
http://scharts.co/1BiCCjo
-- I was trying to hop in and out and damn-near missed it
same business model
same new record sales in prior year - particularly in the fourth quarter (clear growth trend)
same catalysts even coming down to the timing (new record January sales PR COMING)
smaller share structure for the huge run AND after fully-diluted -- the price won't come all the way back down, it may just stay up there (PXYN - the comparison - ballooned to 1.4B O/S bringing the price back to Earth)
much less debt which will be completely settled
nearly profitable - likely be profitable this year
trading at multiples less than its value but not for long
Here's a simple, highly-conservative price target:
-- assuming an O/S that is fully diluted = A/S = 100M
-- assuming zero growth in the fourth quarter (even though we know they had record revenues); extrapolating the revenue from first 3 quarter, it gives 2014 yearly revenue of $10.1M
-- assuming 1.1x revenue market cap (reasonably-low given growth and potential)
Market cap = 1.1 x $10.1M = $11.11M
Price per share = ($11.11M/100M) = 0.1111 (2.7x today's closing price @0.041)
Now jack the target up when we discover January's massive revenue numbers via PR (which can drop at any time), PRs giving us projections for the year, expansion and distribution of meds into other states, higher than assumed 2014 revenues, profitability (making the P/E ratio conservatively 30-60)
RXMD -- If you don't believe me: that's fine. Watch and learn how it's done
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