Grifco Inc (GFCI)

[mrdmrd]

This message is crossposted from RB in the interest of engendering positive discussion about CTBG's financial future as measured by pps. Thanks for your feedback.
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CTBG/GFCI : Given that these stocks are linked at least until the CTBG financials are filed , and maybe later, I believe it is worth our time to take a look at the some projections of CTBG revenue/profit/earnings for 2006.

As a basis for discussion I offer the gist of BBB's message #11052 here on GFCI RB MB. The discussion should center on the variables that have been used. Are they conservative, realistic/acceptable, generous? Is there something missing? Is the PE ratio real?

Would some of you who have experiences in this line of work, sector, etc. comment? What do you think?

Here is BBB's message #11052 on CTBG FY2006 financial projections:
"What will it would take for CTBG to achieve this is about 1,500 tools out in the field -- as an SEC reporting company, of course. According to Swinford's own admission via recent PR, CTBG is scheduled to produce roughly 1,000 tools this year, alone! If he has about 400 to 500 tools out in the field, now, CTBG should be on a run rate in January to be worth $20 per share.

Allow me to give you an achievable example:

Out of all of CTBG's tools, I will posit that the average rental rate is about $1,600 per day per tool. In reality, they rent for different rates, but $1,600 is a reasonable average rate. With a slate of about 1,500 tools, you are talking about amazing revenue.

Obviously, not every single tool will be out at any given time -- it is a matter of realistic expectations. So let us just be conservative by saying the average utilization rates for all of these tools will be 25%. In other words, let us just say that at any given time, 25% of the entire line of tools is out in the field generating revenue.

A typical expectation is 20 working days per month, so we will use 20 days as a monthly work rate. Now, since CTBG is strictly a rental operation (low overhead), let us use a respectable net profit margin of 50%. Before we get all bent out of shape, Specialty Rental Tools (Allis Chalmer's recent acquisition) was also a rental operation and it was able to achieve 34% net profit margins. Specialty Rental Tools is significantly different, though, in the fact that it actually provides its own 24-hour servicing agents, and that adds lots of overhead. Furthermore, Specialty Rental Tools does not rent out an exclusive array of proprietary tools.

In summary, what is it we have? Well, we have 1,500 tools that rent out for $1,600 (on average) per day per tool for 20 work days with a utilization rate of 25% and net profit margins of 50%. So, what does this give us?

1,500 x $1,600 x 20 x 25% x 50% = $6 million per month

This is monthly earnings, mind you! Annual earnings would be 12 times this number, or $72 million. With 86 million shares o/s (eventually, after the div distribution), this gives us a $0.84 EPS. And since CTBG is about to become a fully reporting company, I don't see any problem assigning it the median TTM P/E Multiple of 24x.

And what share price does this now give us?

$0.84 x 24x = $20.16 per share (in less than two years!)


Would some of you who have experiences in this line of work, sector, etc. comment? What do you think? Let's have a good discussion.
BBB: Any further thoughts?
TTex: what do you thunk?
YESNY : How about you?
Cleverrox: what say you?
Shroeder: From the CPA viewpoint, pls.
And anyone else who can contribute.

Thanks in advance. Hope you are all having a great day. Bull