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Friday, January 16, 2015 10:06:34 AM
1. How did management let it happen that right after arranging for borrowing $1.6 million, they needed a quick 200K loan and could get that second loan only via an enormous rate of interest and co-signing by major company ownership? It looks like a cash flow budget wasn't really being prepared.
2. Overall, the company has no retained earnings (stockholders' equity), so being so maximally debt-funded is an enormous red flag. Lots of new companies have great ideas and even great products but run out of money before they can successfully build up working capital to fund their receivables and their needs for expansion.
3. The history last spring of "pump and dump" (I've given proper attribution to Kiplinger and others previously) casts a pall on the company as regards keeping trust with shareholders. FINRA more recently has jumped on the bandwagon as regards alerting folks to be cautious of pump and dump in this particular industry, especially when coupled with creating companies out of shells (as VHUB was created out of the dog-boarding company).
4. Further, the curious short rein at the top of Andrew Birnbaum, coupled with current "family-centered management" raises questions.
4. Finally, the wondrous emotions of the bulls on the stock (as evidenced by some contributors to this Board offering multiple comments daily) will attract bears who by nature tend to be less emotional. When the bulls have a passion for a stock that makes it look as if it were a religion to believe in that stock, that's a red flag for the stock.
To be fair, I can make the bullish case for the stock almost as easily, e.g. VHUB is the one bright light in an industry sector otherwise looking for leadership, coupled with "don't fight the tape" as the stock has soared from its .006 low (though way down from the intra-day high of 2.01). Overall, I would think that the company will simultaneously report in February for the December quarter that it made a marvelous net income, but also is on the verge of running out of money with no more sources to tap (working capital and product investment needs can easily make it possible to have a great income statement and a fatal balance sheet).
Overall, I'd stay away from the stock, as I think that product development is a necessary but not sufficient condition to build a winner in the longer run. In the shorter run, I'm pretty sure that there'll soon be an enthusiastic press release about sales in the December quarter which could drive the stock up further, but I don't think it's going to be pretty when subsequently the bulls all try to get out the door at the same time, perhaps in mid-February.
Most of all, and this is just personal preference, I hope that this Board stays civil and remains a good place to exchange differing opinions. I got interested in what the future would hold for VHUB when I started getting the incessant pumping e-mails last spring, and I've never been long or short in the stock - but it's been fun to follow its journey. Good luck to all.
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