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Re: Jetta09 post# 21320

Thursday, 01/15/2015 11:08:46 PM

Thursday, January 15, 2015 11:08:46 PM

Post# of 24848

I am curious to see what the diabetic supply program has done revenue wise. What do you think?




All joking aside, though, it really is futile to try to handicap this new revenue stream at this stage. Even any disclosure about it in the 10K will be meaningless because it will only reflect one partial month of DEC’14 activity, and as we have seen w/Main Ave, the first partial month of FEB’14 is nothing like what MAR’14 turned out to be, which itself was nothing like what APR’14 turned out to be.

IMO, we need to see the 1st and 2nd WHOLE months to see not only what a whole month looks like but to have an apples-to-apples comp to see what the growth rate is.

BUT, this is all even assuming that SCRC PR’s this number on a monthly basis, and so far, the only revenue stream that is getting PR’d is Main Ave’s primary compounding segment. IMO, this is because it is actually material and worth PR’ing. There is a reason SCRC stopped PR’ing the WRx monthly numbers, you know what I mean?

And considering the fact that the UA/JJ partnerships have been in full effect for several months now, the absence of any PR’s touting its revenues is a tell that it is proving to be immaterial thus far (would love to be proven wrong when I see the 10K though – but knowing BS Schneiderman’s penchant for PR’ing good news, I can’t imagine that he would have passed on PR’ing any of the interim results from UA/JJ if they were significant).

Same thing with PIMD. Been in effect for at least 3 full months now and not a single solitary PR about it. Perhaps the partial first-month results from the tail end of Q3’14 that showed a net loss was no fluke?

Point being that we have been notified of many different revenue streams being launched and other than Main Ave’s compounding segment, every single one w/o exception has thus far either been insignificant, been operating at a loss, or has yet to even launch (RapiMed, anyone?)

That all being said, if the 10K discloses that even a partial month of DEC’14 was over $500k in revenues for this new diabetes supply segment AND the 10K discloses that this segment operated at a meaningful operating profit during this initial partial month, then I would consider this to be a phenomenal success at this early stage and something worth keeping an eye on as a revenue stream that could really make a difference alongside the compounding segment (as opposed to simply being an insignificant revenue stream like everything else so far that is simply barely surviving in Main Ave’s shadow)… …reason I use $500k is assuming it is for half a month, so 1 month would be $1M, so annualized would be $12M – which would be akin to adding 20% to the $60M that compounding is already bringing in, which IMO would be meaningful…

…but the bottom line for me w/regards to this new diabetic supply segment is that, IMO, if it is generating meaningful revenues/margins, BS Schneiderman will PR its numbers each month. So if no JAN numbers by the time FEB comes and goes, then to me that would be a tell that it is not a revenue stream that will move the needle in any way. Could be wrong, but as you know, investing is all about trying to stay ahead of the news so that is how I would see it…