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Thursday, January 15, 2015 11:03:50 PM
So, 2-3% of production. In the last 10-Q, they reported they expect it to be up to 2%.
We are also working with CellunatorsTM technology to enable the release of cellulosic sugars from corn kernel fibers which, when released through an appropriate enzyme for commercial production, will allow us to produce cellulosic ethanol for up to 2.0% of our overall production at a plant that uses the technology.
So if I understand all this correctly, with all 4 plants running the technology, that would be 2% of 200M gallons, or 4M gallons.
They didn't say any of it was part of Q3 production. I believe the hold-up is in part because while the decision was made regarding allowing corn fiber to count, they're still waiting for a determination of whether they can claim that 2%, or whether the final number will be different.
Now I don't remember offhand whether Boardman is actually complete, but assuming it is, they state they expect "some increment of commercial production in 2014." So some imcrement of 2% of one quarter of 120M gallons of production is possible for Q4, or 0.02 x 120 x 0.25 = 0.6M gallons.
4M gallons of annual cellulosic production should be onstream at some point in 2015. The Sweetwater project is due to come online in 2016. Again from the latest 10-Q:
To this end, we are in the project development phase with Sweetwater Energy to acquire cellulosic industrial sugars. We expect this project will take at least two years.
Yes, it's all coming, but it's not all here yet.
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