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Re: maxncompany post# 9135

Saturday, 05/06/2006 9:01:47 PM

Saturday, May 06, 2006 9:01:47 PM

Post# of 115222
maxncompany, your point is the conventional/historical wisdom that all seem to focus on and few seem to mention the growing demand for gold due to technological innovation and growth. The approach you focus on has to do with the notion of a coming bubble, the approach that I bring up suggests that the 850 per oz. bubble of some 20 years ago will not soon be repeated, unless the price rises well beyond $1000 an ounce. Today there are uses for gold other than for minting coins and hedging wealth, and those uses are growing by orders of magnitude every 10 years.

"Of an estimated 128,000 tons of gold ever mined (Worldwide), about 15% is thought to have been lost, used in dissipative industrial uses, or otherwise unrecoverable or unaccounted for. Of the remaining 108,000 tons, an estimated 34,000 tons is official stocks held by central banks and about 74,000 tons is privately held as coin, bullion, and jewelry. [...] (Using 1999 population statistics and applying those numbers to total gold) This presents us with a per capita supply of gold at the present time of 0.58 ounces." --Joseph Miller

The question then is, with the industrialization of the 3rd world at hand, technocrazation imminent, and the world population not peaking for another 30 to 50 years, will 2/3rds of an ounce per person worldwide be supply enough for all uses in the near future? This is the questiion that drives the current price toward $1,000 per ounce. In fact, maxncompany, I would lay odds that you have at least one article of jewelry that already matches or exceeds 2/3rds oz., the per capita weight of gold.


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