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Re: coolerheadsprevail post# 21026

Wednesday, 01/14/2015 11:44:53 PM

Wednesday, January 14, 2015 11:44:53 PM

Post# of 24848

the biggest obstacle from financier shares lurking in the overhang will be getting thru the .20 barrier and then the .24 barrier, as these represent the levels where the highest quantities of dilutive shares can be expected to be sold into the float.


This statement was made 8 days ago when the sp was just breaking thru the .17x level and began to solidly print .18x.

Since then, we have been trading for 6 days and have clearly been hitting a wall at the .20x level. The good thing is that we have still been seeing decent volume and over this 6 day period have traded over 6M shares valued at approx $1.2M.

The current base in the .19x-.20x levels is the strongest base we have ever seen at any level, and is now twice the size of the previously-largest base – the one that was set not too long ago at the .13x-.14x levels.

It is no coincidence that we are hitting resistance now. Not only are the 3.1M financier shares priced at the .14x level that were in the overhang now priced to sell at .196 and up (you know, the ones that JOSEPH ZAMPETTI and his core group of criminal associates who are desperately trying to unload their portions of the 28M shares of 0.00 and 0.05 PIPE stock have claimed to not exist because they don’t know where to find the disclosures about them in the SEC filings, LOL), BUT we have to realistically expect that a chunk of the shares that comprised the base that was formed at .13x-.14x to be flipped as well due to profit-taking. In a nutshell, having an above-average quantity of shares all priced to sell at the same time is the cause of the resistance as supply is overwhelming demand at the .20x price level.

In addition, every TA indicator is now screaming “take a breather”. Even some of the “buy” recommendations are turning to “holds” and some “sells” for those who are devout TA fanatics. The RSI was kissing 80, and that is also a signal of the stock being overbought.

No one knows what the next few days will hold. Only 135k shares traded under .195 today, and of these, only 35k shares traded under .19, so although it is noteworthy to see lower lows and for .19 to get breached, there was so little liquidity at those lower levels that today’s action is inconclusive of anything to be alarmed by yet.

As I also mentioned in a prior post, so long as volume stays at least 700k-800k per day, I am content, as it will keep us on an acceptable pace to flush thru meaningful levels of overhang in a reasonable period of time. We just need buying interest to comprise at least half of each day’s volume, and NOT have the bulk of each day’s trades be bid-hitting.

Those shareholders and potential investors who understand the magnitude of the dilution that is sitting in the overhang at various price levels will always be able to stay ahead of the curve as these resistance levels are fairly easy to predict as they always have been w/SCRC.

How much selling we see over the next few days will give us a clear idea of whether the bulk of the recent buying has been true long-term investors or short-term traders. After all, long-term investors don’t care as much about TA indicators and charts and short-term “sell” recommendations – BUT short-term traders DO, and they absolutely abhor sitting on dead money even for short periods of time.

The good news is that the RSI has been slowly re-setting over the past couple of days and the 70 level is now at .2092 (so we are now BELOW this important level and not simply being just below the 80 level that we were in danger of going over). And speaking of the 80 RSI level, this important metric has now rest itself SIGNIFICANTLY higher and is now at .2642. IMO, based strictly on this indicator, things are getting setup nicely for a decent sized "next leg up". We just need to avoid both bad news and massive selloffs by holders of discounted shares.

IMO, the higher the sp goes, the stronger the base you want to have built at each major interim level. Considering the absence of any base in between .13x-.14x and the .19x-.20x levels, I am glad that the base that is being built at .19x-.20x is as strong as it currently is. Let’s just hope that it isn’t overwhelmed by crazy high volumes of motivated selling as no base is strong enough to withstand a mad rush to the exits.

I do not foresee any negative catalysts that should trigger this, and with JAN numbers only a couple weeks away, I wouldn’t expect many folks to jump ship this close to an important number (remember, JAN is the first month under the final phase of the new insurance coverage restrictions for compounded Rx’s, so if JAN numbers reflect negligible impact then from an operational standpoint, a significant risk would have been overcome and removed from the investment thesis as it really would be clear sailing going forward – with only the selling expenses to work on to reduce).

Continued GLTA…