Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[scottsmith]

I'm a newb, so please explain:

From what I've read here, the people that seem to understand the science calculate that B has a 98 percent chance (at least) of a successful Phase 3. If this is not what is being stated, please correct me. Further, notwithstanding the potential 2 percent chance of failure, some serious side effect could pronounce itself once more patients are involved.

I've also heard that Big Pharma may not want to do a deal until the scenario is further de-risked.

To my inexperienced eye, the first and second paragraphs are incongruent. If something has at least a 98 percent chance of success, how much safer does Big Pharma want before jumping in. Those seem like good odds to me.

Logically, you'd assume they'd want to do that deal with such high expectations of success. If they would want that deal, we can only assume, logically, that a deal had been offered.

What am I missing?