I know alot of people do not like speculation on these boards and for the most part, I agree, it does not bring value.
However, IMO, that is partly what these boards are for. Sharing educated thoughts and possibilities along with the facts. The key is being able to wade through all of the agendas and noise in order to find occasional posts that bring value and an educational discussion that can help in making the most informed decisions possible.
Trading or investing in ECIG requires a lot thought, because there is a lot going on here and a lot of risk. It is like a 5 way chess match between management, debt holders, shorters, traders, and longs. Maybe even a sixth player that is hiding in the dark and heavily accumulating extremely cheap shares. You have to think like the other to better determine their next move and in doing so determine your next move.
As such, here is my speculation for the day on the possible sixth player in this chess match:
If I had 50 million dollars laying around and that I wanted to turn into a billion in the shortest time possible I would short the hell out of ECIG on the tail of the convertible note holders that are doing the same. Then cover/accumulate, rinse and repeat, until I had 152 million shares at these levels (costing about $7-8 million) to gain majority control (51%) by the time of the A/S maxed out. I would vote no on R/S, pay off all toxic debt (about $30 million) and then use the other $12 million in other areas needed most for increased growth. The PPS would quickly (within days) return to where it belongs between $1.00 - $2.00 and with the momentum and rapidly growing revenues and sector would very likely go back to the $5.00 - $10.00 range within a year. 152,000,000 x $10.00 = 1.52 billion dollars in shares along with majority ownership of the fastest growing company in the fastest growing retail sector. An addiction based retail sector to boot.
Now think who has this type of money. And who is looking to expand into the nicotine addiction market?
In conclusion, while a traditional buyout or merger with ECIG by Big Tobacco will probably not happen. The chances of a hostile takeover are increasing by the day. And management deserves this after all of their stupid mistakes. Not that they would mind too much in the end. 40,000,000 (insider shares) x $10.00 = $400 million.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend all!
I'm gonna go smoke my FIN $ECIG and enjoy a beer (or two) before bed.
