rum, Lex is basically saying that money was free to Ariad, and e.g. Ariad gave up worthless watches. Is the Japan/pan-Asian market a worthless watch?
No value lost in giving up 10% stock ownership (I think that was the number) of Bellicum? I don't know how Lex pays his light bill, but when I sell an investment I reinvest it, not pay the light bill with it. TimC thought much more about the CAR technology at the AGM.
Japan, the third largest market with high reimbursement, and the rest of Asia, that went for $77MM and we still pay all the regulatory expenses to approval? We'll burn a chunk of that $77MM on the Japan program just to get approval (in 2016?), and the whole regulatory expense and Japan trial cost nearly the full amount, not to mention the prorated development costs of Pona. My argument is that for all that investment that Ariad made in Ponatinib, with the additional expense of the trials in Japan, and elsewhere, Otsuka sockatood it to Ariad. Otsuka got the rights for nothing, all they pay is commissions to their established sales force.
To say Ariad did not dilute is rationalizing it beyond reason.
Understand, Fitz's little warrants/option gambit ensured that the future stock dilution will be at least 20MM shares (either from the convertible, or the warrants. If they can pay off the convertible, the warrants will have to have been ITM), and potentially 40MM under certain conditions. That JMP forecast only shows employee stock awards.
In 2015, $20MM of revs will not be organic growth, but deferred 2014 revenue. Even still, $186MM in 2015 is somewhat a stretch. Y/e 2014 POD would have to be 675 or so, I'm not sure that is achievable. If they raise prices ASAP 10 or 15 %, it is more likely doable.
As for the JPM conference, it would a first for Ariad to announce much at these conferences, but you never know. When Ariad does announce mN, they would have to announce some sort of clinical plan (or what would be the point of announcing)? Cash burn would go back up.
Still, without some more dilution, new R&D, GIST, any new Pona INDs, all of it stays mothballed. 2015 is a donut hole in funding options created by the 2014 dilution. Once cash reaches $170MM, HB has historically pulled the trigger.
HB turned this from a $3.6B company looking at $10B, into a $1.2B looking at $3.6B. Maybe some here think that worthy of honors and 1MM shares of free stock, but I'd fire him and the legacy BoD he rode in on.
As for the newbies here in PC, you will do well. Understand though, same guy is in charge that screwed it several times before. Don't count those chickens yet.
AI
