Strategy Central

[POKERSAM]

zelareka - That is an interesting question. I'll try to answer it. I am going to assume that you are seriously asking the question.

I called the top on Jan. 11, 2006. I trade the Qs for the most part with option plays on sndk and brcm and sometimes oih and others. Let's just take the Qs. If you had sold short on Jan. 11 and held till now you would be up slightly and will be up greatly the longer you hold your short. You could hold short for the next two years and probably make 25 points since I believe the Qs will go to 15-18. I am not talking about investing, there is a difference between investing and trading.

On the other hand you could trade the way I do and day trade and swing trade without a lot of concern over the direction of the market beyond the next signal on a 5 min two day chart. In the case of swing trades there are patterns involved that may take days or weeks to play out and those have to take into account the ST and occasionally IT direction of the market.

For the past 5 months trading with a bearish bias has not really been necessary because we have not broken down. It has however kept me from holding long past the tops. Because of my bearish IT and LT bias I have been more aggressive in shorting. Meaning that a bull looks for an entry to go long and I look for an entry to go short. This has not been detrimental to my success in any way because we have not had any kind of breakout in the the vehicles I trade. When we eventually break below what I will call the neckline and head for the Oct. lows of course I will be prepared where many perma bulls will continue to look for a breakout and an opportunity to go long.

I don't know if I have answered your question. There is no way to quantify the difference between what I would have made the last 5 months if I had been bullish. I think it would have made very little difference.

POKERSAM
"Major Bear Mode"