Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)

[Rule_62]

bid 1.72/ask 1.75 (I use the average between them in my margin) calculation
Source: Progressive Fuels Limited

PEIX doesn't sell at the rack price.

I get the Nebraska (and now Illinois as well) data from the weekly USDA ethanol report, which shows the average plant selling price.
Click on the indvidual state and then the Friday ethanol production report. I don't use the daily ethanol report because the ethanol numbers are only actually updated once a week, and the individual State reports give me the corn, ethanol and distillers grain numbers, as well as the resulting production margin.

To calculate the Kinergy margin, I am using the California price reported by Prpgressive as the selling price, and the Nebraska plant ethanol price from a week prior for the purchase price. I figure 7 days is a reasonable allowance for transport and resale.

Of course at this point we don't know the total costs to Kinergy in terms of rail transportation and overhead, nor do we know the total volume of sales Kinergy does on this basis (as opposed to the percentage handled for a straight management fee, similar to the marketing deal they have with Keyes). Nor do we know if it's sold at the current destination market price at the time of purchase, so it's all a little bit of an experiment to see if there's any correlation between the numbers this data set generates and overall PEIX profits. I figure though, that if I track it long enough it should provide at least some insight when used for quarter over quarter comparisons. Mind you, that's all going to change come Q2 when the merger is completed.

I wouldn't put a lot of emphasis on the Kinergy margin at this point, it's pretty difficult to assess it's validity.