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Re: Ognib post# 1208

Wednesday, 12/31/2014 10:40:50 AM

Wednesday, December 31, 2014 10:40:50 AM

Post# of 8579
Ognib, let me venture a reply to the question that nags you, i.e. the 99% drop. As I've written in prior posts, I'm not invested in this stock, but I've followed it, initially because I was so intrigued by the pumping e-mails and calls I got that I wanted to personally see how long it would take for it to flush itself down the drain, and then later because I've so much enjoyed the camaraderie and banter on this board (as long as it has remained civil).

Let me copy into this note a paragraph from my post #1117 which may go a long way towards explaining the drop:
First, let me state my biases. I am a bear for the long term on this stock, given the "pump and dump" history of last spring, the family-centered management team, the "material weakness" reported as to their internal controls which they are mitigating by utilizing the services of Winther & Co. CPAs, the pile of debt financing which might find its way into becoming issued shares of stock, and the fact that rapid growth in sales generally requires commensurate growth in funds serving as working capital.

What I forgot to include in the above paragraph is that you'll see via their SEC filings that they did hire an outside CEO, Andrew Birnbaum, who bolted after just a few months. That is an enormous red flag, especially when a company is as family-centric in management as this one is.

What's keeping the stock price down is the company's history of playing in the nasty world of pumping and dumping, the increased attention being paid by FINRA and eventually by the investing community to such manipulative schemes, and the fact that a high growth rate means a high need for increased working capital which does not come cheap. I'd add that family-centric management probably also is a factor on the negative side here as well, though our bullish colleagues on this board could rightly throw Walmart in my face.

All this aside, the bulls on our board may very well prevail at least in the short term (which is where they tend to live), because it does appear to be the case that there will be press releases forthcoming about how great the holiday selling period was. Also, the end of tax-loss selling will lift a short-term cloud that has been hanging over the stock.

Ognib, you are clearly an eager student of investing, and if I were to try to add to your store of knowledge, it would be that evaluating a company itself is not the same as evaluating its stock.