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Thursday, December 18, 2014 1:11:46 PM
A far more accurate source than DTN is the PFL Biofuels Report. It provides the bid/ask for California on a daily basis.
As for crush margins, unless the variables that are being used to generate the number are provided, they're all rather meaningless. It matters what State it's based on, as well as whether it includes WDGS or DDGS and/or corn oil.
Lots of people like to quote the Neely number. It's great if you want the profit margin for a hypothetical ethanol plant in Iowa, that meets the profile that forms the basis for the Neely model. That includes a similar debt structure. As for it's application to a plant in California that buys and sells at entirely different prices and produces WDGS and corn oil as co-products, it's not such a great indicator.
That's why I look to the PEIX hypothetical formula for guidance. It's provided by PEIX, for PEIX operations.
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