I have traded oil for over 10 years...
IMO, you will not get a better chance to make more money than at any time in your life.. It is not a commodity like silver or gold.. this is THE commodity.
No, I would not buy these USO or UCO.. because of slippage.
Focus on ERX.. average in over the next several few months. It might take as long at 24 months. But it will come.. be patient.
The American Oil Boom Won't Last Long at $65 Per Barrel
By Matthew Philips December 01, 2014
U.S. shale oil production
Photograph by Gregory Bull/AP Photo
U.S. shale oil production
So maybe OPEC does still matter. After deciding to keep its production levels unchanged at 30 million barrels a day and triggering Friday’s nearly 10 percent selloff, the cartel proved it can still cause huge swings in oil prices-even if it’s in the opposite direction that most of its members wanted to see.
Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Venezuela were all hoping for a cut of at least 1 million barrels to keep prices from going lower. Citibank (C) analysts estimate that the world is producing about 700,000 barrels a day more than total demand requires. With international oil prices below $70 for the first time since 2010, most OPEC member countries will have trouble keeping their budget deficits in check. According to an estimate by Goldman Sachs (GS) last month, only Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar are safe below $70.
OPEC’s idea is to try to knock out U.S. shale producers by driving prices lower than they can afford. That way Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s biggest exporter, can keep its market share in the U.S. But the damage to its fellow oil exporters could be severe. In Russia, for example, the ruble is plummeting. Iraq is already having trouble fighting ISIS, and lower oil prices won’t help. Libya is in chaos. Venezuela’s economy, already on life support, depends on oil for 95 percent of its export revenue. Iran’s oil minister on Friday told Bloomberg News that he has doubts the strategy will even work: “There’s no fact or figure to say that shale production will definitely decrease,” he said.
Story: At OPEC Meeting, Saudi Arabia Stares Down Texas and North Dakota
U.S. production probably will decrease, even if it takes a while. At $65 a barrel, it’s unlikely the U.S. can keep up its record-setting pace of expanding oil production. U.S. oil has jumped from about 5 million barrels a day in 2008 to more than 9 million. Even before OPEC’s decision, forecasters were calling for a slowdown. Last May, for instance, the Energy Information Agency forecast that total U.S. production would peak just shy of 10 million barrels per day before 2020.
U.S. crude production forecast to peak in 2019
EIA
U.S. crude production forecast to peak in 2019
The question is: How soon will prices start eating into that growth? It might actually take most of next year. Money is already invested in wells that are producing right now; it’s future wells that are at risk as oil companies slash investment for the next few years. “Don’t hold your breath for a production response, since there will be a six-month lag between a drop in rigs and a slowdown in production,” writes Manuj Nikhanj, head of energy research at Investment Technology Group.
That will have a major impact in the next few years, especially since U.S. shale accounts for about 20 percent of all crude oil investment in the world. For the next several months, though, the U.S. will likely keep flooding the market with crude, which should continue to make it cheaper. There’s already talk of prices hitting $40.
Story: The Relentless Production of Shale Oil Is Breaking OPEC’s Neck
On average, the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana has a higher cost than some of the other big shale plays in Texas, such as the Eagle Ford and Permian. The Bakken’s biggest operator, Continental Resources (CLR), run by billionaire Harold Hamm, holds about 1.2 million acres of land in the region. That’s well above the next largest leaseholder, Exxon Mobil (XOM), which holds 845,000 acres, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence.
Top leaseholders in the Bakken
Bloomberg Intelligence
Top leaseholders in the Bakken
The Bakken has been one of the primary engines of growth for the U.S. Since 2007, oil production there has risen from less than 200,000 barrels a day to more than 1 million. The boom happened so fast, pipeline companies didn’t have time to build enough lines to the fields. The result has been a bonanza for railroad companies, which have quickly filled the gap. For the past two years, most of the oil that has left North Dakota has done so on a train.
Bakken crude production
EIA
Bakken crude production
For Bloomberg Businessweek’s Year Ahead issue, Hamm boasted that Continental could operate at $50 a barrel. Now the world will probably get to find out if that’s true.
Recent USO News
- Form 10-K - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/29/2024 10:22:18 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/28/2024 02:25:15 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/30/2024 03:54:45 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/28/2023 04:23:21 PM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/04/2023 10:02:52 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/28/2023 03:11:29 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/16/2023 10:04:21 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/07/2023 04:25:33 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 10/27/2023 11:38:08 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/29/2023 01:16:59 PM
- Form EFFECT - Notice of Effectiveness • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/30/2023 04:15:19 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/29/2023 09:00:47 PM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/29/2023 08:23:41 PM
- Form AW - Amendment Withdrawal Request • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/29/2023 04:35:08 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/28/2023 11:41:40 AM
- Form S-3/A - Registration statement under Securities Act of 1933: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/25/2023 05:29:49 PM
- Form S-4/A - Registration of securities, business combinations: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/25/2023 05:03:05 PM
- Form S-3/A - Registration statement under Securities Act of 1933: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/14/2023 09:01:00 PM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/08/2023 08:35:20 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/08/2023 08:33:36 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/04/2023 01:02:55 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/31/2023 02:01:09 PM
- Form S-3/A - Registration statement under Securities Act of 1933: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/14/2023 08:31:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/28/2023 01:10:13 PM
FEATURED NanoViricides Reports that the Phase I NV-387 Clinical Trial is Completed Successfully and Data Lock is Expected Soon • May 2, 2024 10:07 AM
ILUS Files Form 10-K and Provides Shareholder Update • ILUS • May 2, 2024 8:52 AM
Avant Technologies Names New CEO Following Acquisition of Healthcare Technology and Data Integration Firm • AVAI • May 2, 2024 8:00 AM
Bantec Engaged in a Letter of Intent to Acquire a Small New Jersey Based Manufacturing Company • BANT • May 1, 2024 10:00 AM
Cannabix Technologies to Deliver Breath Logix Alcohol Screening Device to Australia • BLO • Apr 30, 2024 8:53 AM
Hydromer, Inc. Reports Preliminary Unaudited Financial Results for First Quarter 2024 • HYDI • Apr 29, 2024 9:10 AM