Why I Have yet to reinvest in SGLB:
I am not in the industry and I don’t have a crystal ball to reasonably predict the future success of SGLB's technology. Those that are more knowledgeable than I seem to have universal agreement that SGLB’s products will gain universal acceptance as industry standards and be enormously successful. They may be exactly right, and I hope that they are.
I’m a New Mexican native and invested in SGLB early...in at .03 and out at .17. I attended the SGLB Board meeting two years ago (shortly before I sold) and have followed the stock closely ever since looking for a reentry point. Last Spring, when the stock was trading in the mid teens I felt that if the PPS reached the .08 region the risk/reward would be appropriate and I would reinvest. I have decided to wait for further price erosion, which I expect to occur, before pulling the trigger. Here are my reasons:
I assumed that the commercialization of Printrite3D would be the major stumbling block to contract awards and revenue generation. With the allegedly enormous need for this type of software, and SGLB’s wide industry contracts with major players, I expected to see orders flow from the announcement of availability. This has not occurred, even three months following the announcement.
SGLB stated that they were receiving requests for quotes for contract printing on their new machine (which is apparently now operational) yet have never announced a service contract or associated revenue. I also have to wonder what the “payback” time is for a 3/4 million dollar printer to generate one-off parts a single part at a time.
SGLB announced almost a year ago now that they expected to see $750,000 in revenue this fiscal year. No announcement to date (this is a significant event) and two weeks left in the year.
Perhaps most worrisome to me is the fact that SGLB has only a single independent director who is looking out for shareholder interests. There is absolutely no excuse why this has been neglected for so long and raises a red flag in my mind.
Finally, with 612 million shares outstanding assuming a 20% net profit margin, SGLB would have to generate 30 million dollars in sales for a single penny to fall to the bottom line for each shareholder. While I could be completely wrong, I personally don’t see this happening in the next 12 months, under the most optimistic of assumptions.
My new target is sub .06 PPS. I’ll reevaluate when/if the PPS ever reaches that point. Clearly my opinions run against the grain here, but that is how I see it.
