Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[greggors]

Finally some objectivity...unfortunately, it's not from this message board.

CS has a pretty short history covering Ariad (2013) and raises and lowers its target in reaction to the share price, with little to no value for its pipeline. Most thorough models assign value to all Phase 2 assets and then choose appropriate discount rates for risk, market size, and competition. While I don’t expect earlier lines of CML to be factored at this time, the CS report does show how vulnerable the share price is to misinformation. I mean 2018 sales of $170M, really, as in 1,500 patients on drug three years from now? The prevalent T315i population alone will grow to over 3,000 in 3 years now that an effective drug is available (1,400 incident, ~20% of 2L CML). Curious too that since January CS lowered revenue expectations for ‘113 from $50M to $29M in 2017, did something change this year? Oh that’s right, they validated BIC efficacy, safety, CNS activity, PFS, got BTD, and launched pivotal trial in 45 locations, yeah this makes sense too.