I was asked why I thought this battle with J&J would result in a settlement. There is a short answer and a longer answer.
1. The short answer. 97% of all cases that pass the pleading stage get settled. Those are pretty good odds.
2. The longer answer. Because J&J has fought so hard and been able to keep its suit going even as DECN chops off chunks time after time, indicates that if DECN does not open the doors to settlement talks, then J&J will do with what they have a lot of... spend money. They will stall, they will appeal every little thing. They will take depositions of DECN employees, even shareholders (and they will know exactly which shareholders to approach). DECN will fight back and turn the anti-trust case into a "federal case." They will approach the press and keep up a steady flow of news, even tiny news. And by the time the case is finally over, perhaps after the Supreme Court gets involved, DECN will collect in judgments about twice the value they could receive three years earlier by taking a hard line and finally settling. Everything going on in court now is just a side-show. I am amazed that people spend so much time becoming obsessed with a case that really died in November 2013. These little court hearings are just both sides doing their job and the judge checking all of the boxes.
IMO this case currently has a top value of $75 million in the short term with a low end of $30 million. It will settle IMO the day KB decides he wants to move on and the "deal" is the best he can get without mortgaging the future.
I believe some shareholders will sell on that (positive) fateful day, but they won't sell because they are upset about the company taking bags of money instead of selling pallets of Genstrips. These pepole will sell because they will figure they are unwilling to wait for any additional share appreciation.
I reserve my judgment on the settlement amout if DECN is able to "turn the tables" on J&J. If KB is given this advice, and if he takes it, and if DECN's lawyers can say the right things to J&J lawyers, then I can see a possible settlement will into 9 figures.
