AI
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| Alias Born | 04/29/2008 |
Tuesday, December 09, 2014 10:56:29 AM
LOL, instead of probabilities, you go on gut? You mean gut as to what the probabilities of each outcome (good or bad) are?
Every decision you make, whether investing or not, is based on your assessment of probabilities. An "educated guess" is what you're doing when you wake up and decide you're probably not going to drop dead in the next day, so you should invest for the future.
And it's not a question of "believing me" or not. You look at the facts I point to (usually the company's filings), my analysis of those facts and decide what you agree with and what you don't. Then you factor that information, along with everyone else's, and come to an assessment (odds, probabilities) of this being a good investment or not. That's not a strategy or option, it's the way EVERYONE invests (unless you're using a totally random mechanism, which of course would be crazy).
Every decision you make, whether investing or not, is based on your assessment of probabilities. An "educated guess" is what you're doing when you wake up and decide you're probably not going to drop dead in the next day, so you should invest for the future.
And it's not a question of "believing me" or not. You look at the facts I point to (usually the company's filings), my analysis of those facts and decide what you agree with and what you don't. Then you factor that information, along with everyone else's, and come to an assessment (odds, probabilities) of this being a good investment or not. That's not a strategy or option, it's the way EVERYONE invests (unless you're using a totally random mechanism, which of course would be crazy).
Competing is intense among humans, and within a group, selfish individuals always win. But in contests between groups, groups of altruists always beat groups of selfish individuals.
E. O. Wilson
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