Intel Corp (INTC)

[Ixse]

Sold my remaining 40 AMD Jan 20's for about $14.10

- Too much uncertainty about K8L. Performance and introduction date. Charlie somewhat confirms that K8L might be a Q2 thing like I suspected already; basically K8L might well not be the first 65nm product.
- Added performance caused by 3rd gen strain (SiGe) might well not make it to rev F this year
- Intel pulling in NGA release dates (at least comparing to what I thought it would be)
- Possible very aggressive ramp of Woodcrest
- Intel is cutting prices significantly enough to limit AMD's upside to guidance this Q
- Most importantly sentiment might favor Intel's upcoming NGA for a while. The street might think all Intel's advantages in H2/06, H1/07 (until K8L) might outweigh AMD's massive capacity increases.

I plan to trade AMD when I think good news is coming. I might take a stake in Intel this Q before NGA, and possibly trade it afterwards. When we know more about K8L I might get back in. Also if I think sentiment might start changing again in AMD's favor I might get back in too (I think sentiment is often overreacting, but it influences the stock prices often rather significantly).

In addition to some Intel + some trades + owning Spansion shares I'm now looking for another stock with good leverage based on technical fundament. I own Spansion shares based on the same thing (tech fundament - shares, not options, because I think it'll go up nicely over a bit longer time). I'll probably trade Cray before DARPA funds are determined. I'll be looking at eastern europe as well (like Czech Republic, Poland, not Russia).

Regards,

Rink