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Sunday, November 23, 2014 5:49:19 PM
mistake?
well given the AIG case we can have a live experiment with little risk - other than a temporary decline
I think the AIG suit will lose due the extreme power the judiciary will afford to the executive during a time of crisis or national emergency - which it was for F and F and AIG
I think that the third amendment fails legitimacy on several grouds and key is that it occurred just as F was getting very profitable and no emergency
If AIG wins its case - F and F go up 3x that day IMO
If AIG loses it case - F and F will fall but that will be an interesting speculative price - as indeed the suits focus on the latter event not the original
I hope AIG wins and it suggests victory of large or medium size for FNMA - but I do not expect it
I expect AIG to lose and that will impact stock price but as you note the focus is not ON the original event in times of heat and crisis but much much later
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