Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[Traderfan]

Yeah human nature works that way. When contemplating a difficult decision, often immediately after we make that decision, we start to think of all good reasons we did that. Its not just me, everyone will tend to do that.

I know that it's the way human nature works. It's partly a reason why 80%+ of people lose money in the stock market. Not talking about your SIAF decision here, talking in general about the topic. Actually it's not so much about difficult decisions, it's more about suddenly being stuck and having to wait it out since you on your own said that you should have sold at 86 cents, I know human nature is then to give yourself a good feeling about holding on to the stock in telling you all the good things. I just found the reaction "interesting" at that time and that's why I commented.

You only have my trades with SIAF to judge me. So far I have one good call and two bad calls with SIAF. If you looked at the track record of my other stocks recently you would see I am doing pretty good.

I didn't want to judge you at all in general! Sorry if you had this impression. I was really solely talking about the last few SIAF trades you mentioned and the reasoning you gave in the last few weeks. I have no reason to believe that you aren't doing well overall if you say so.

By the way the volatility in the markets last October hit a high not experienced since 2012. We were definitely dangerously close to a market crash. I went to 100% cash just before that happened. It was mostly a good move except I sold out of everything on time but held onto SIAF a few days longer because it was breaking RSI records. The day I decided to get out was one day before the stock crashed. In the following morning I started to watch the stock price as I was thinking of when to sell. It was dropping and I was waiting for a intra day bounce to sell. It just kept plummeting and dropped 30% of its value before my eyes in about 2 or 3 hours.

Ok let me explain what I mean with my statements in the last posting. When you started posting you certainly came across here as a strict TA guy. You gave this impressions more than once. You said that you got into SIAF purely based on TA (after the first 20% move), you said how you will never hold on to a stock if the chart turns negative, you held speeches about the MA50 and how important it is here for SIAF just days ago.

But then again you don't act like this. And that is what I found weird. You held on to all of your shares on a stock that was at an RSI of 90 for two or three weeks. Suddenly you came up with how cheap the stock is. Sure it is cheap, doesn't matter that it won't stay at these high RSI levels forever. How can a guy who is a more or less pure TA guy not sell a single share back then? That makes no sense, there is no TA guy out there in the world who would do this, not a single one anywhere. Now if anybody doesn't know better it's a different thing of course or if anybody is a strict long term investor who just doesn't want to react to any short term noise at all while the stock is so cheap it's another thing as well but you seem to look at exactly this stuff according to you. Now before anybody comes up with all the reasons why SIAF went down from these overbought levels, it doesn't matter. If certain reasons wouldn't have been there, others would, sooner or later. Might have gone not as low or whatever, but the point surely remains.

The same with the MA50. Just 2 days ago you held a speech how critical the MA50 is now for SIAF and the stock, you expected a big bounce once it gets tested (at least that's how I understood it) and then you don't react when it gets big time breached. At 82 cents which was almost 10% below the MA50 you even told me it's still in battle which obviously is way too late. A successful test of the MA50 certainly doesn't look like this at 82 cents. That's what I meant with late reactions.

WE just aren't going to make the right call all the time.

Of course not. How can you. It's impossible. And that was never my point. I was simply confused about your TA speeches on the one hand and then your actions which didn't go hand in hand at least not for me. Don't get me wrong I use TA for some things here as well and I certainly post about support or resistance levels here from time to time. It can help making you extra money on your buy or sell decisions on trading shares or whatever. For those that are interested and others should just ignore it. I know it has made me a lot of additional money here over the years. But then again in general SIAF is a story stock and profitable trades can often be made on other reasons like for example lately at 90 cents after the relatively disappointing numbers. Also I guess we have to make up our mind in general about at least a core position here as you now agree anyway from what I read.


Hope you don't think I wanted to offend you. I was just puzzled about the above things.