Anyone read the Senate committee findings on the 2 year Benghazi investigation? All the conspiracy theorists out there will be disappointed, as was FOX NEWS. Their 1,000 reports on the subject certainly proves their National Enquirer status.
So what does FOX NEWS do when caught in a lie? They don't report it. The only news organization that doesn't come to the conclusion that there was no smoking gun, no stand down order from the white house, no cover up, only bad intel. The committee came to that conclusion in their report, but FOX knows the real truth. Big Foot is alive!
I urge all to do a search on the subject and see if I am misrepresenting FOX.
On the domestic front: As I have stated for a long time now, with very little acceptance, we are having an accelerated multi-month economic improvement on all fronts. Every component of this economy is improving. Earnings were over 8 percent last quarter. Expectations for 8 percent over next 2 or 3 quarters, down from 10 percent but none the less very impressive.
The slowdown in the rest of the world has boosted investment here. Stocks, bonds and housing have reaped the benefits. Seasonality, good earnings prospects, low rates, weakness overseas is propping up our markets, not to mention strong future orders, consumer sentiment surging, and holiday shopping. These factors should continue to prop up this market. On the technical side we are over stretched but the trend line stays intact. I suspect we stay in channel till New Year. I also suspect that any correction between now and then will be a buying opportunity. The current support level is now SPX of 2040. The lowest range on any drop I can see would be SPX of 1960. On the upside we should top out above 2100, to perhaps 2120-30 range. We should also experience a slow upward bias between now and the top. The big moves have been made from this impressive "V" shaped pattern.
If anyone is doubting the Feds intention on raising rates in 2015, think again. They will because they have to. My contention is that higher costs will result, along with missed earnings from overseas income. An earnings over estimation could easily result in a 20 percent drop in the market sometime in 2015. I just don't see that same scenario in the real economy. I therefore still maintain this next bear trend change will not be the final "big one", and instead we will see yet another upward wave after that event unfolds.
I was told in no uncertain terms my analysis was way wrong over a year ago. I was also told it was incoherent and silly. I can only guess that the very same critics will once again dismiss my macro views. I welcome a discussion. No need to get emotional. Just facts and suppositions on future trend is always helpful.
For those that only want to display their prowess on the day trading than I apologize for the intrusion. I thought having a road map for the not so distant future would help with the decision process. If wrong or unhelpful to your betting regiment than I once again apologize for taking up your time.
Good trading everyone.
