Just talking out loud here..
Being sick and tired of this dumping of shares and wanting to know when the pain might conceivably end, I made some quick calculations.
To summarize, there have been 2 notes that converted so far, each for $100,000. The first converted October 29 and the second on November 15. The first guy tried to play it easy and started selling only slowly so he could get a higher price. The second guy sold at a higher rate, but that's partly due to his lower price and thus more volume needed to sell his greater number of shares. The first guy joined the second guy in getting rid of the remainder of his shares, I'm guessing.
The first guy's shares converted at about .027 and the second guy's shares converted at about .0185 according to my rough estimates. If right, this would have diluted by a grand total of 9,100,000 shares or thereabouts.
Another thing I'd like to say is the folks who have the longer term bonds, from 12 months to 2 years... their bonds are immediately convertible, they don't have to wait. I'm guessing that they are waiting though and are collecting all their interest and will convert when the notes mature since the volume until October had been pretty light.
So finally, the meat of my calculation. Since October 29, about 21,076,000 shares traded. Edit: since I said something that didn't make sense to me about dividing volume by 2. So, if half that volume was the bond holder selling to investors, we should be done with the dumping of converted shares :)
When will we have to repeat all this again? Yes, January 15. but only about 3/4 of what we had to endure this round.
The whole point to raising money this way is because you are planning to EXECUTE on something while the notes are maturing that will let you raise funds more cheaply. From what we hear, ERHC is executing their plan. I believe ERHC won't try and raise Chad seismic funds until they've executed and delivered some positive seismic reporting on Kenya.
Since only about a third or a quarter of the notes came due before ERHC had a chance to EXECUTE their plan, they don't need to fall on their swords just yet. They still have some time to deliver results that will at least maintain if not improve the share price before the rest of the notes convert.
