Leo told us in his last PR that he'll be meeting with the FDA in December, where the full Brilacidin PIIb data set will be presented. Those meetings will have to take place in the first halfish of December as most government employees won't want to do serious work after the 15th or so.
What this means to me is: (reading the tea leaves)
1. He has stated that does not see a need to dilute at this price point. What can this mean? Leo is looking at the full data set and believes Brilacidin is as good or better than the best drugs (Dapto) on the market and vastly superior to Durata which was just purchased for more that 600,000,000.
2. He has stated he would like to up-list to a sr. market, yet why hasn't he moved to the NYSE MRK (or other similar markets)? IMO, he most likely feels that he is close to having what he needs for a move to his target market, the NASDAQ, in the near to mid term (2015). Again, he knows the bottom line Brilacidin data which gives him confidence and understanding we sometime don't have.
3. No independent BoD members yet, why not? Leo has done very well without a BoD and adding additional egos, cost and oversight, while necessary in the long run, may not be the best course in the short term (1-3 months). When the B PIIa bottom line results are made public, he must feel that the market and potential Board members will take note and that the company will be ready to become more mature.
4. Brilacidin Phase III, it took Leo little more than a year to buy a completely novel technology (drug) platform and build, submit, finish and analyses a phase II trial. The trial itself was only about six months long. I think Leo expects multiple phase III Brilacidin trials to start and end in 2015.
5. Proving of Defensin Mimetics as a real and novel class of antibiotics. This is new ground and it will take scientists and regulators time to understand and accept the new platform.
All of the items above focus on Brilacidin progress. We have two other compounds that may prove as big or bigger than Brilacidin. I have a HUGE investment in CTIX and while it is risky, the risk profile is as good as I've ever seen for a public company. It really is akin to investing in a google/FB type play in a series A/B round.
If any of the PIII trials of Brilacidin are successful in 2015, CTIX will have a market cap in the 3-5B range (roughly 10-20x higher than our current stock price).
Again, this is a long term buy on the dips and hold. I hope everyone has a great holiday week. I know I'll be hitting some beaches and getting out of the cold and snow!
