Stock Market Sentiment (long-term)

[vicorka]

Below I split current long-term trend (2009 until now) into waves based on the trading volume of the NYSE Composite index. The most significant point that all until now we had steady decrease in volume on the stock market (see chart below).

Over the past two month we may see increase in volume which may suggest that major players (who entered market in 2009-2010) are starting to act. On my opinion we are entering the final stage of the Bullish market when major player will be distributing (dumping) their investments to the public. During this period the market may continue to go up or it may go side-way. Also we should see increase in volatility. and it may last for a year.

On my opinion we should more closely watch the developing of longer-term trend from now. Especially we should pay attention to changes in volatility and volume. It will help us to estimate when we will have down-turn and whether it will strong correction or an entrance into a recession.



Full description of the volume waves on the chart above could be found HERE