Intel Corp (INTC)

[Ixse]

re: AMD and its camp followers will be singing a different tune all right in a quarter or two. No doubt they will shift the debate from product performance and power efficiency back to the PR lawsuit

Product performance and power efficiency will largely redefine Intel's strengths.

The lawsuit isn't due to finish until 2008/9. It's much too early to have that much influence on the stock.

One thing that I think is under-emphasized though is that AMD this year will increase it's fab capacity quite a bit. This will allow the necessary richer mix of dual core vs single core products, and might allow it to stay afloat much better until the combination of 65nm, SiGe, and K8L (than when this capacity would not be available, like when Northwood started outperforming K7). This presumes that K8L will be up to NGA.

Current rev E&F K8's will be pushed to midrange when comparable NGA parts are launched, and then on to low end. Meanwhile the combination of 65nm and K8L will be introduced somewhat on top of current K8 performance (a bit like Woodcrest/Conroe now but with less of an advantage over previous generation I presume). Timing of 65nm and K8L will be highly important. 65nm looks like it will be shipping in Q4. I presume SiGe between 65nm launch and K8L, and my guess for K8L is that it will more or less make the rumored H1 '07 window, probably Q2-ish.

In short I am currently guessing that end 2007 the situation will be less dire for AMD then it was some 18 months after the launch of Northwood. It's based on quite a bit of presumptions though; it's still a long way out and there isn't a clear enough roadmap from AMD's side.

Regards,

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