Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)

[Rule_62]

Ok, going through the 10-Q (first chance I've had to really study it) I think I found where a good part of where the difference was. Part of it was due to trading in futures

Pages 11-12: Loss of $1.217M due to derivatives.



At first glance the next thing I looked at seems to be where the meat is: The actual price they paid for corn in Q3 based on when they bought it, vs the CBOT average + basis for the quarter. Their actual cost is highlighted in yellow:



There's a $0.28 difference. One thing to take note of: I actually had $2.62 for the average CBOT price for the quarter. That's due to the fact that I keep track by the week, as opposed to the actual calendar date beginning and end of the quarter. So, the difference in corn between my calcs using the PEIX formula and their actual cost would be $0.26. The same applies with ethanol: Their average sales price per gallon was $2.32 whereas the average Cal terminal price, based on keeping weekly tabs, was $2.37

But when I run those adjusted numbers through the formula, I only come up with a $1.07M difference over the quarter. That doesn't explain it all. It still works out to an average production margin of $1.002 (vs the 1.025 calc that I used.

However, take a look at the actual gallons of production sold. It's 46.8M gallons, against an ideal 50M gallons. That's a difference of 3.2M gallons.

3.2M gallons * 1.019 = $3.26M

Now add it all up:

Derivative losses ($1.22M) plus margin adjustment ($1.07M) plus actual sales ($3.26M) = $5.55M

Divide that by 24M shares to get the fully diluted difference and there's $0.232/share (before taxes).

So a big part of it is actual gallons sold (which doesn't necessarily mean gallons produced, they have held back some inventory in hopes of better prices).

I'll keep digging . . .