Intel Corp (INTC)

[chipdesigner]

How about this one: if AMD stock hits $23.60 at any time before Jan 21st, I can exercise it and double my money. That's only 30% off from today's price. And if the stock falls to $20.40 and I exercise, I will have tripled my money. That would be a 40% fall, which is quite conceivable if AMD starts missing guidance and has to admit that Intel is gaining back market share.


I don't think you fully understand options. One, you wouldn't exercise it, you'd sell it. Two, if the fall happened in advance of Jan 21st, there would be time premium left (though smaller as it gets more in the money), so you don't need the stock to reach $23.60 in order to double your money, if it falls soon enough.


Now let's say you want to go long at AMD's current price, which seems to be your recommendation. Given AMD's stock price of $33.50, you will need to get to $67 to double your money, or >$100 before you triple it. And I don't think there's anyone except Niceguy who's willing to put out those kinds of projections.


This is just stupid. The equivalent contrarian position would involve buying calls with similar leverage, not buying common stock.


Of course, there is a downside. If AMD stock price never drops below $26.80, I will never recover my initial investment, and if it never drops below $30, I end up with zero. On the other hand, it's all a matter of risk vs. reward. I wouldn't put all my eggs into one basket, but I have enough money that I'm willing to risk this play to see if I can get a 2- or a 3-bagger.

Again, this is not true as stated. For example, if AMD dropped to $30 tomorrow, you could get out, probably with a small profit.

If you hold to expiration, you're counting on AMD being below $26.80 in January. Seems rather unlikely.