FWIW
$45 billion by 2020.
Facing Lantus' upcoming patent expiration, Sanofi has already partnered withRegeneron (NASDAQ: REGN) to commercialize Regeneron's revolutionary anti-lipid drug alirocumab – a powerful drug that posted excellent phase 3 data in its unparalleled ability to reduce LDL-cholesterol with similar safety yet much better efficacy than the Illustrious Blockbuster drug, Lipitor that recognized more than $12 billion peak revenue for Pfizer. Now with Afrezza on board, Sanofi will not only be replacing Lantus’ upcoming loss in revenues due to its patent's cliff but the French drugs maker will catalyze its next phase of earnings growth.
Investors should note that MannKind partnered up with not just a winner but also one that would enable Afrezza to achieve complete dominance in this diabetes market. Sanofi is a global powerhouse and supreme leader in diabetes that delivered the top prescribed basal (long acting) insulin Lantus for 2013. Backed by recommendations from the American Diabetes Association as the basal insulin of choice, Lantus is widely prescribed in 120 countries delivering more than $6 billion in annual revenues for Sanofi. Now Afrezza has become the chosen one to replace, and probably outperform, Lantus.
360 Biotech's research shows that Afrezza will initially be prescribed as a mealtime insulin but doctors will soon realize its stellar efficacy and safety in combination with Lantus (prescribed at higher doses as seen fit by the clinicians). This will lead to significant improvement in A1c (a monitoring marker for diabetes), and physicians will start to prescribe it off-label for prediabetes or obesity to optimize insulin sensitivity. Another likely scenario is that Sanofi, with its extensive experience, deep pockets, and diabetes expertise, will file for Afrezza's label extension for prediabetes treatment.
Prediabetes is the area commonly overlooked but the statistics show that the market for prediabetes is even larger than diabetes per se. Given the American Diabetes Association pushing for early insulin treatment, it's highly likely that the future trend will be toward treating prediabetes. Hence, the market will be surprised, as Sanofi-MannKind will leverage Afrezza to take complete dominance in the unconquered land of prediabetes and obesity.
Given that obesity, high cholesterol, and insulin resistance tend to occur together in what is known as "co-morbidities," Sanofi's global powerhouse sales/marketing teams could cut down cost and synergistically deliver alirocumab (to treat high LDL-cholesterol) and Afrezza (to nip insulin resistance in the bud to treat both prediabetes and diabetes). It was no coincidence that Sanofi, a world leader with an expert research team and a highly intelligent/strategic board picked Afrezza as the chosen one…the partnership is indeed a match made in heaven! Nonetheless, while the experts at Sanofi and others saw that, Mr. Market is distorting the reality to scare unseasoned investors with drastic share declines and misinterpretations of the deal
