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Re: destiny12903 post# 45533

Tuesday, 04/25/2006 3:03:40 PM

Tuesday, April 25, 2006 3:03:40 PM

Post# of 78730
density: Let me first remind you that you were going to look into the facts I used for industry performance to refute your ridiculous speculation about RIM share price and market cap. I can only assume that since you did not provide anything substantial to refute my analysis, that you admit you were way off base with your wild speculation.

Now, it seems that you are trying to deflect attention away from me slapping you around, and instead have turned to attacking me and Ikanos. This is not the Ikanos board. However, some of your assertions are as patently ridiculous as your previous post, so I will answer.

Because you compared RIM to your beloved IKANOS however, I thought by taking some time to learn about a potential RIM competitor, I could answer you more clearly. What I learned however was appalling.

Well, first of all, Ikanos is not "beloved" by me. I considered buying on the IPO, but never did. I choose Ikanos as a comparison to RIM for several reasons:

1) They began development at almost exactly the same time that NVXE did.
2) They also touted the world's fastest xDSL chip.

These two facts make a comparison between the two a natural, logical choice. But I have also compared RIM to Infineon, Centillium, Metalink and others.

3% margins. If I were a U.S. company with supposed worldwide prospects for dissemination of broadband technology, reporting to have shipped over 10 million ports since 4th quarter of 2002, and to date had ZERO business in the United States, isn't that reason for concern?

Given the company's 50%+ quarter-on-quarter revenue growth, most investors see much more profitability in the future. My point, that you seem to have missed completely, is that it take a very large amount of volume to produce respectable margins in the semiconductor business due to the enormous up-front costs.

As for the US business, if you actually took some time to understand the industry, you would have found that virtually no telcos in the US currently offer *any* VDSL products. Ikanos manufactures VDSL products exclusively, and they always stated that their target market was Asia. Now, they are succeeding in their target market. Imagine that.

What about the fact they have one customer who represents 47% of their entire revenue base, and only three others?

What about it? I'm sorry, but I don't understand your point. There is only a handful of large telcos in Asia. Furthermore, Ikanos has exactly four more customers than RIM has.

Could you explain to the class Spoke what a "design win" is? And why is it Ikanos in all it's 10 million port history has not been successful in gaining a single design win with a company that represents a US telco?

Look up "design win" your own damn self. As I already said, no major us telcos offer VDSL. That is not Ikanos' current market.

Ikanos proports to have VDSL2 technology that transmits at up to 100 megs/sec. Why is it in none of their publications, distance is mentioned? Could this be one of the reasons US telcos have not wanted to dance with them?

Nobody mentions distance in any publications except in general terms. There are far too many variables that can dramatically affect reach. Ikanos does talk about reach in general terms.

Maybe they have no viable product?

LOL. Yup, they sold 10 million Actiontec modem boards and called them VDSL2 chips. Geez. You are really reaching. Just for the record, Ikanos' first generation products were tested in the DSL Olympics. Their results were so good, it caused the ITU to standardize on Ikanos' DMT as a result. But, if it makes you feel any better, you go right on ahead believing that they have no viable product.

Could you explain why a company that reportedly becomes "profitable" for the first time in 2005, has an IPO in October, authorizes a 12 for 1 reverse split, raises a bunch of capital, then virtually every officer, director, and insider holds a fire sale emptying his cofers of virtually all his stock within the last 45 days.

I think you are confused. Again. You say you're a doctor. You might want to consider Aracept. The reverse split took place before the IPO, when the company was still privately held. There are currently only about 24MM shares outstanding - about 5% of what RIM has. As for the fire sale by insiders, I can't explain it, though I haven't looked into it. I will say that it is not uncommon for insiders who have been invested privately for many years to sell some shares to reward themselves when the company goes public.

I have to admit that I don't understand your visceral attack on Ikanos. I have only used them as an example of a company that began when RIM did, yet has succeeded immensely, where RIM has failed miserably.

Given your grave concerns about Ikanos, how can you possibly have any remaining interest in RIM? You are making absolutely no sense.

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