Plug Power Inc (PLUG)

[uksausage]

Ugh they still have no operating margin. How do you expect them to contiue. If you invest now and get diluted your ivestment will be wothless. You already own 75% less shares then you did 3 quarters ago. You just think they will magically make money all the sudden. They need to increase revenue 5x atleast. Gross margin is negative and operating margin is real negative. Thats going to take a long time.

This is the best summary of the bearish case I have seen.

a) they have no need to dilute any more - at current losses they can last 3 years with cash in the bank. So no immediate worry since ...

b) they are growing at getting on for 100% a year (2015 guidance is double 2014 but we didn't have a good Q1 in 2014.) Bookings reflects this so no real reason to question it.

c) that is only the USA materials handling market which at the end of 2015 they may have 4% of so lots more longer term growth potential there, then there is:
ground Support equipment
Range Extenders
TRU generators
Relion cell tower business ($20m not in current guidance)
Hydrogen sales - not really factored in yet
European Materials handling
Asia Materials handling

So looking forward not backward is what I do. There is no magic - just arithmetic - double revenues increased margins (from 10% to 25% on hardware), fix the service costs addressing quality issues, sell more hydrogen - which is locked in like printer toner.... tells me they will grow fast and only have to cover the $5-6m a quarter overhead to make real profit.

The CEO knows exactly what he is doing at the strategic level - his marketing/communications is abysmal.

It will take a long time but what is the reason for the price going any lower than it is now? A question - when will shorts start to cover this is a gold mine for them.

I was disappointed in the Q3 numbers had they come in right it would have been double current pps and probably rising to $12 in Q1 it wont now I know. this is way too much of a correction and IMMHO an excellent opportunity for those who missed it to get in.