nice post. here is something i have noticed. when xiv drops many times it drops about 25%. So 20% may be a good starting point and i see the vix etfs are lagging and i agree they may not get bavk up there yet. my opinion though if the republicans win house and senate that volatility may drop and the xiv will go to new highs.
CALL or PUT at your own risk. I offer opinions and nothing else. Good luck.